In a move that has sent ripples through diplomatic and defense circles, former U.S. President Donald Trump has paused a military aid package for Taiwan valued at more than $400 million, according to multiple reports from The Washington Post and News18. The package, which was set to include advanced munitions and drones—making it notably more lethal than previous shipments—was reportedly held back as Trump sought to secure both a trade deal and a possible meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
This decision marks a significant departure from years of robust U.S. support for the island’s defenses. For decades, Washington’s security commitments to Taipei have stood as a pillar of its Indo-Pacific strategy, aiming to deter Chinese aggression and uphold the delicate balance across the Taiwan Strait. Now, with Trump’s recalibrated approach, questions are swirling about the future of that support and the message it sends to both allies and adversaries.
Five individuals familiar with internal U.S. discussions told The Washington Post that the weapons bundle on hold would have considerably boosted Taiwan’s deterrence capabilities. The pause, however, is not set in stone and could be reversed depending on the outcome of ongoing negotiations with Beijing. Still, the optics are hard to ignore: as Trump prioritizes talks with Xi, Taiwan finds itself in a precarious position, caught between superpower bargaining and the looming shadow of Chinese military ambitions.
China, for its part, has doubled down on its threats to take over Taiwan. According to News18, the Chinese government has recently intensified its rhetoric, raising regional security concerns to new heights. U.S. intelligence assessments have noted that President Xi has instructed the People’s Liberation Army to be prepared for a Taiwan takeover by 2027. While officials caution that this does not necessarily mean an invasion is imminent, the timeline underscores the urgency of the situation.
Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, when asked about the reported delay, sidestepped direct comment but emphasized that defense cooperation with the United States remains ongoing. In a carefully worded statement, officials reaffirmed the island’s commitment to “building stronger deterrence capabilities in partnership with Washington and other allies.”
Analysts are sounding the alarm over the timing of the U.S. pause. As Dan Blumenthal of the American Enterprise Institute told The Washington Post, “This would be exactly the wrong time for the U.S. to take the foot off the gas pedal.” The sentiment is widely echoed among defense experts, who argue that any sign of wavering could embolden Beijing and undermine the confidence of partners across the region.
The Trump administration’s broader approach to China has shifted noticeably in recent months. Not only has there been a relaxation of some semiconductor export restrictions—a move welcomed by certain business sectors but viewed warily by national security hawks—but there has also been leniency in enforcing a congressional ban on TikTok. Critics argue these concessions risk eroding U.S. leverage and, more pointedly, Taiwan’s ability to defend itself in a crisis.
In contrast to his predecessor, President Biden approved more than $2 billion in security assistance to Taiwan through direct drawdown authority, signaling a more proactive stance. Trump, however, has pushed for Taiwan to finance its own arms purchases, a policy shift that has left some in Taipei scrambling to adjust their defense budgets and procurement strategies. During high-level discussions in Anchorage last month, U.S. and Taiwanese defense officials mapped out a plan for billions in new arms sales, with Taipei expected to foot the bill through supplemental spending. Yet, as the paperwork moves through the pipeline, actual deliveries could take years—a delay that leaves Taiwan with potential gaps in its short-term readiness.
To address these vulnerabilities, Taiwan has pledged to allocate 3.3% of its GDP to defense in the coming year, with a goal of reaching 5% by 2030. Trump, however, has reportedly pushed for a far more aggressive 10% benchmark, underscoring his belief that Taiwan must shoulder a greater share of its own defense burden. Meanwhile, U.S. officials have quietly alerted Congress to a possible $500 million sale of additional weapons to Taipei, though the fate of that proposal remains uncertain amid the current policy flux.
Despite the turbulence, Taiwanese officials have sought to project calm. They stress that the island’s defense posture is evolving and that cooperation with the U.S. and other allies remains robust. Still, the shifting sands in Washington have not gone unnoticed. In recent weeks, Trump’s team has discouraged Taiwan’s leadership from making high-profile visits to the United States and has canceled meetings between senior defense officials. These moves, while perhaps intended to avoid antagonizing Beijing during sensitive negotiations, have left policymakers in Taipei and beyond unsure about the long-term trajectory of American support.
Regional observers are watching closely. The possibility that Trump’s pause on military aid could be reversed is real, but so too is the risk that it signals a broader willingness to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip in U.S.-China relations. For some in Washington, this approach is pragmatic—a hard-nosed attempt to extract concessions from Beijing while keeping the door open to future cooperation. For others, it’s a dangerous gamble that could undermine decades of carefully calibrated deterrence.
Meanwhile, China’s stepped-up rhetoric has only heightened the sense of urgency. As News18 notes, Beijing’s threats to take over Taiwan have grown more explicit, with state media and government spokespeople reiterating their claims over the island and warning of consequences if “separatist activities” continue. The U.S. intelligence community’s assessment that Xi wants his forces ready for a potential takeover by 2027 has added fuel to the fire, prompting calls for a more resolute response from Washington and its allies.
The debate over how best to support Taiwan is far from settled. Some argue that pushing Taipei to increase its defense spending is both fair and necessary, given the scale of the challenge it faces. Others worry that such demands, if coupled with delays in U.S. support, could leave the island dangerously exposed at a critical juncture. What’s clear is that the stakes have rarely been higher.
For now, Taiwan continues to walk a diplomatic tightrope, seeking to maintain strong ties with the United States while managing the ever-present threat from across the Strait. As the situation evolves, all eyes will be on Washington—and on the choices its leaders make in the months ahead.
With the future of U.S. military aid hanging in the balance and Chinese ambitions undimmed, Taiwan faces a defining moment in its quest to safeguard its autonomy and security.
