With the presidential election just weeks away, the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is heating up. A recent national survey from Fox News indicates Trump leading Harris by 2 percentage points, with 50% of likely voters backing him compared to 48% for Harris. This marks a change from last month, where Harris had enjoyed a slight edge.
Interestingly, Harris still holds the advantage among voters from seven key battleground states, leading by 6 points. The competition appears particularly tight among voters from closely contested counties, where both candidates are tied at 49%. Much of Trump's support stems from strong backing within counties he won decisively during the 2020 elections. He leads with 64% of support from these counties, contrasting sharply with Harris's 58% among areas where Biden had more than 10 points of victory.
This situation raises questions about the Electoral College's impact on the election outcome. Historically, we've seen candidates win the presidency without clinching the popular vote, as happened with GOP candidates in both 2000 and 2016. The polls clearly show Trump has been gaining ground, especially among White voters, where his support has surged from 4 points last month to 10 points now. He's also at his highest approval among voters aged 65 and older, where he garners 49% support.
On the flip side, Harris's numbers are less favorable among certain demographics. Her backing from Black voters has dipped to 67%, and the support among college graduates and seniors also shows troubling declines. College-educated voters who previously leaned toward Harris are indicating they might not be as committed this time around.
Despite the mixed signals, the race remains close—it's important to note how fluid these numbers are. Harris previously had leads of 2 points and 1 point over Trump as the polls shifted from August to October. "Overall, the movement toward Trump is subtle but potentially consequential," notes Chris Anderson, the Democratic pollster who co-directs Fox News polling. He emphasizes the significance of voter turnout over mere persuasion, especially as we approach Election Day.
The gender gap continues to be notable, with men predominantly leaning toward Trump and women favoring Harris. A particularly promising sign for Harris is her ability to tap new voters—she has 52% support from those who did not participate in the last two presidential elections and 20% from non-MAGA Republicans. This highlights her strong appeal among independent voters.
Nevertheless, Trump's overall advantage stems, at least partly, from the stark partisan divide. More voters are identifying as Republicans than Democrats, giving Trump the edge as both candidates are expected to receive strong loyalty from their respective bases. Specifically, over 90% of Trump’s supporters are firmly committed to his campaign, making it harder for Harris to convince them to switch sides.
Harris does maintain her lead among younger and Hispanic voters, with support levels at 54% and 52%, respectively. Yet these figures remain below the support levels Biden had back in 2020, where he saw around 60% from those groups. Adding to the complexity, Trump's overall popularity seems to be inching up as well. His job approval rating has climbed to 53% among the general public, including 93% approval from his core base of Republicans and 74% from non-MAGA Republicans.
The economic outlook is another key issue influencing voter sentiment. Recent surveys indicate significant dissatisfaction with the current economic situation, with nearly 70% of voters rating the economy negatively. Only 30% give it positive marks, representing the highest percentage of discontent observed since mid-2022.
The candidates are also seen as having strengths on different issues—with Trump viewed as stronger on economy-related issues, immigration, and crime, whereas Harris maintains her ground on abortion and climate change. Interestingly, the candidates are about even on taxes, election integrity, and Supreme Court nominations.
Polling reveals Trump is perceived as more capable as president, holding 55% approval for leadership qualities, compared to Harris at 47%. His supporters are primarily motivated by economic issues and immigration, whereas Harris’s supporters seem more inclined to vote against Trump or protect democratic values, with abortion being top of mind for many voters as well.
All said and done, the future of Harris’s campaign and the overall race is yet to be determined. Political analysts have noted the importance of voter turnout as both parties seek to mobilize their bases. There have been countless discussions about whether Harris can overcome the lead Trump has established, by not only focusing on persuading undecided voters but ensuring those who are leaning her way turn out on Election Day.
Polling for this survey was conducted from October 11 to October 14, 2024, among 1,110 registered voters, with described margins of error of ±3 percentage points. Given this tight race and changing voter sentiments, both candidates clearly have their work cut out for them as the election draws near.
