The conflict between Ukraine and Russia is entering a new chapter as U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced intentions to initiate peace negotiations. Following phone calls with both President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on February 12, Trump claimed negotiations to end the war would commence immediately. "I just spoke to President Volodymyr Zelensky. The conversation went very well. He, like President Putin, wants to make peace," Trump tweeted, shedding light on potential discussions set to take place at the Munich Security Conference from February 14-16.
While the prospect of peace talks sparks hope, it also ignites concern among Ukrainian and European leaders. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth cast doubt on the likelihood of Ukraine restoring its pre-2014 borders during negotiations, asserting NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table. The immediate implication of this stance may pressure Kyiv to make considerable concessions to Russia.
Experts indicate Ukraine is unlikely to accept any recognition of Russian-occupied territories, including Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine. "Recognizing the aggressor's claim over the occupied territories is unacceptable," stated Volodymyr Aryev, a lawmaker from the European Solidarity Party, highlighting the strong opposition within Ukraine against any territorial compromise.
This stance feeds concerns voiced by Oleksandr Merezhko, head of Ukraine's parliamentary foreign affairs committee. He stated, "The main question is how to deter Putin if he — should a truce agreement be reached, which I doubt — tries once again to seize a larger part of Ukraine's territory." Merezhko believes NATO membership remains the best deterrent against renewed Russian aggression.
The discussions at the Munich Security Conference are anticipated to cover several potential terms, including delaying NATO membership and freezing current front lines. Experts also suggest the possibility of trading territories, where Ukraine might exchange its foothold in the Russian Kursk Oblast for parts of its territories claimed by Russia. "I think there will be a ceasefire along the line of contact at the time. There may be some adjustments and possibly a buffer zone," posited Stefan Wolff, professor of international security at the University of Birmingham.
Americans and Ukrainians alike are advocating for stronger security guarantees from their European allies. Zelensky pointedly remarked, "Security guarantees without America are not real security guarantees," underpinning his call for U.S. involvement as fundamental to Ukraine's defensive strategy.
On sanctions, proposals suggest they might be partially lifted depending on Russia's compliance with any ceasefire or peace accord reached. Nonetheless, fears abound within Ukraine concerning the repercussions of reducing sanctions without meaningful steps from Russia toward de-escalation.
Ukraine's future also hangs on the possibility of elections, as U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg indicated these could materialize if Kyiv agrees to a truce with Russia. Yet, with over 7 million Ukrainians displaced due to the conflict and infrastructure ravaged by war, political analysts believe holding fair elections remains improbable under current conditions.
The Kremlin has also pushed for the revival of pro-Russian political parties and the Russian Orthodox church's autonomy within Ukraine, yet experts argue these demands are likely to face staunch resistance. Merezhko commented on the political climate, stating, "The people will never support such parties," reflecting the deep-rooted animosity stemming from recent events.
Meanwhile, discussions surrounding language rights for Russian and proposals to demilitarize Ukraine's military to satisfy Russian demands have been met with skepticism. Political analysts contend any agreement subjecting Ukraine’s military capabilities to limitations would be viewed as unacceptable, particularly without formal guarantees of security from NATO or the U.S.
The path toward peace remains fraught with challenges. Political analysts like Fesenko warn, "There could be security agreements but these must involve the U.S. to hold weight." The international community watches closely, and with the Munich Security Conference around the corner, the outcome of these negotiations remains uncertain.
What is clear, though, is the deep-seated complexity surrounding Ukraine's aspirations for sovereignty and territorial integrity, against the backdrop of international diplomatic maneuvering. Only time will tell if these talks lead to genuine progress or if they merely serve as another chapter in the protracted conflict.