The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election race is heating up as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris vie for the hearts of voters just weeks away from Election Day. The stakes are high, especially among the Arab American community, historically loyal to the Democratic Party, which now finds itself at the center of unexpected political maneuvering.
Recent polls show Donald Trump gaining ground, particularly among Arab American voters, as tensions around U.S. foreign policy grow. According to The National and other sources, Trump has been capitalizing on discontent with the Biden administration, particularly its support for Israel amid the devastating conflict with Hamas and the recent war in Gaza.
With Election Day swiftly approaching, the narrative becomes increasingly complex. A poll conducted by The Arab News/YouGov revealed a close contest between Trump and Harris, with Trump capturing 45% of the Arab American vote compared to Harris’s 43%. This shift indicates potential erosion of Democratic support, which could be pivotal for Trump’s team aiming to leverage Arab American disenchantment with the current administration, particularly on issues surrounding the Middle East.
Recently, Trump has ramped up outreach efforts, particularly in swing states with significant Arab American populations, like Michigan. Dearborn, known as the capital of Arab America, has seen Trump's campaign actively canvassing the community, signaling the former president's intent to widen his support base. Local events, billboards, and ads have positioned Trump as the candidate sympathetic to their concerns, distancing himself from his notoriously controversial past, which includes the Muslim travel ban he implemented during his presidency.
"Trump is making a lot of noise in the Arab community," says Hussein Dabajeh, a local business owner. The outreach has included targeted advertisements casting Vice President Harris as part of the “pro-Israel team” elevated by the Biden administration, positioning Trump as potentially more attuned to the needs and sentiments of Arab Americans.
The significance of the Arab American vote cannot be overstated. Back during the 2020 election, it played a role to help Joe Biden secure his presidency, especially by rallying against Trump’s past policies. Yet, with the current administration facing backlash over its foreign policy, particularly pertaining to Gaza, many are reconsidering their allegiance.
Harris, who stepped up to lead the Democratic ticket after Biden withdrew from re-election, continues to assert her support for Israel’s right to defend itself, stating during her campaigns, "This year has been very difficult, considering the scale of death and destruction in Gaza." This position, once politically safe, now finds her on shaky ground amid growing frustration over the Palestinian crisis which has claimed thousands of lives.
Polling data suggest Harris still enjoys some support among women voters – particularly among the female population, where she leads significantly. Yet, Trump’s focus on appealing to Arab Americans hints at strategic shifts, reminding voters of his previously vocal stances on peace and Middle Eastern politics, albeit seen through his controversial lens.
Adding another layer to the campaign's dynamics are ads produced by Republican-linked PACs. They exploit perceived contradictions within Harris’s messaging on Israel, labeled by some experts as "extraordinary" and potentially divisive. The ads are said to target various populations based on their community’s unique sentiments and fears. Maya Berry, executive director of the Arab American Institute, warned against disinformation campaigns likely to polarize voters and manipulate pre-existing biases.
Political strategists have acknowledged the increasing complexity of voting patterns, especially as Trump tries to paint Harris as lacking direction on foreign policy, especially concerning the Middle East. Harris, who is currently campaigning heavily to maintain her lead, has been accompanied at key events by prominent Democratic figures to shore up support.
While Harris leads slightly nationwide, with polls showing her at 48.1% compared to Trump's 46.4%, the dynamics within battleground states paint a different picture. Trump leads or remains neck and neck with Harris across pivotal states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania – all historically seen as blue — underscoring his potential to flip votes.
The race is particularly tight in Michigan, where Trump's campaign has explicitly targeted Arab-Americans. The duality of Trump's past policies versus his current outreach efforts creates complex conversations among voters trying to reconcile their feelings of betrayal with his newfound approach. Local endorsements, such as the recent support from Amer Ghalib, the city’s Democratic mayor who recently endorsed Trump, added to the chaos. Ghalib called Trump, "a man of principle," shaking the foundations of traditional party loyalty.
Overall, as campaigns push onward, it’s evident every vote will count and the political energy among Arab Americans signifies changing tides. The once-unified vote for the Democratic party begins to show fractures, as Trump’s tactics and Harris’s commitments come under the spotlight of scrutiny.
With the election looming and the stakes rising, the push for every vote becomes increasingly dynamic. The political chessboard is shifting – presenting both Harris and Trump with substantial challenges as they approach the final phase of their campaigns. The real question remains: which candidate will resonate more meaningfully with the communities who feel the strongest ripple effects from U.S. policies abroad?
Polling and public sentiment suggest the answer might be as unpredictable as the election itself. With Election Day on November 5, the intersection of foreign and domestic issues will continue to dictate voter sentiments, making this contest one of the most closely monitored races leading up to its resolution.
