Americans are weighing the possibility of receiving $5,000 stimulus checks as part of a proposed program under the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by former President Donald Trump and tech entrepreneur Elon Musk. The initiative has sparked discussions about the feasibility and potential impacts on the economy.
The concept was largely driven by James Fishback, the CEO of investment firm Azoria Partners. At the recent FII Priorities Summit held in Miami Beach, Trump announced, "We’re considering giving 20% of the DOGE savings to American citizens and 20% to paying down the debt,” indicating strong governmental support for the initiative. Fishback proposed sending checks directly to American taxpayers to restore trust and compensate citizens for the government’s historic misuse of tax dollars.
According to Fishback, the projected savings from DOGE could reach $2 trillion, with $400 billion earmarked to be distributed among eligible households. This translates to a $5,000 check for approximately 79 million taxpayer households. “Americans deserve a ‘DOGE Dividend’: 20% the money DOGE saves should be sent back to hard-working Americans as a tax refund check. It was their money in the first place,” Fishback stated.
But will Americans really see these checks? The feasibility of sending $5,000 checks hinges on DOGE achieving its savings target. Currently, Musk has estimated total savings at around $55 billion, which falls significantly short of the required $400 billion necessary for the proposed distribution.
Judge Glock, Manhattan Institute's director of research, voiced concerns about the increased deficit and potential inflation if such payments were enacted. "It would increase immediate consumer spending, and we don’t want inflation right now,” he remarked. Others, like Professor Jay Zagorsky from Boston University, echoed these apprehensions about the inflationary consequences of sending large checks to the public, especially amid existing tariffs increasing costs.
Economists and political figures have expressed mixed reactions to the proposal. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson remarked, “Politically, sending checks would be great... but our core principles, fiscal responsibility is what we do as conservatives.” His sentiments capture the skepticism within sections of the GOP over the practicality of the proposed payments, especially with national debt soaring over $36 trillion.
The intricacies of eligibility add another layer to this proposal. If enacted, low-income Americans may not benefit from these potential checks, as Fishback confirmed the rebates would only go to net-income households—those who pay more taxes than they receive back. Most Americans earning less than $40,000 typically do not pay federal income tax, complicicating the scope of beneficiaries for any potential DOGE dividends.
Despite the increasing buzz, the savings target seems elusive. Critics like George Carrillo, CEO of the Hispanic Construction Council, voice skepticism about the practicality of funding such checks, stating, “The $5,000 DOGE Dividend proposal is bold, but the math doesn’t add up.” He emphasized the need for fiscal responsibility over short-term incentives, warning against potential societal harm.
This notion of returning taxpayer money echoes previous relief efforts during the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar to the pandemic-era stimulus checks, which were sent to millions under Trump's administration, the DOGE checks seek to directly support households, yet concerns linger about inflation and economic viability.
For the program to proceed, it must navigate the legislative process. Experts confirm the authority to issue such payments lies with Congress. Thomas J. Cryan, legal expert, pointed out, “DOGE does not have the constitutional power to issue Payments to the American people...that power lies with Congress,” highlighting the need for legislative action to make the DOGE dividends reality.
Musk's mission with DOGE, formed to root out wasteful spending within the federal budget, is set to conclude by 2026. Until then, it remains uncertain whether the ambitious savings goals set by this initiative will ever materialize. While the public sentiment grapples with the proposed checks, many are understandably cautious about declarations of success, particularly from figures known for ambitious claims.
Anyone holding out hope for relief via DOGE should proceed with caution. Even as concepts circle through policymaking discussions, both economic and political leaders’ responses indicate significant uncertainty about the numbers required to support this plan. Time will tell if Musk and Trump can deliver, but potential beneficiaries may want to avoid making any long-term financial commitments based on these discussions.