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Politics
25 December 2024

Trudeau's Poll Numbers Plummet Amid Growing Dissatisfaction

Poll reveals 69% of Canadians want Trudeau to resign as Liberal leader, resulting in falling popularity across party lines.

OTTAWA — Snowflakes weren’t the only thing plummeting over the nation’s capital this Christmas. New polling released on Christmas Eve by Leger suggests Prime Minister Justin Trudeau now ranks third (11%) among other party leaders as Canadians’ preferred choice for PM, behind Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre (31%) and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh (13%).

Sixty-nine per cent of Canadians said Trudeau should step down as party leader, sentiments felt more or less equally across the country. Supporters of all parties overwhelmingly felt Trudeau should step aside — except for Liberal voters, among whom only 33% wanted Trudeau to step down, with 50% saying he should remain. This ambivalence is echoed within the ranks of Liberal supporters, as 46% said they didn’t know who should replace Trudeau as leader. For those who had firm opinions about possible successors, 21% indicated Chrystia Freeland, followed by 7% for Mark Carney, Dominic LeBlanc, and “someone else.” A mere 5% supported Anita Anand as leader, followed by 4% for Melanie Joly, 2% for François-Philippe Champagne, and 1% for former B.C. premier Christy Clark.

Trudeau’s favorability is geographically varied. Nationwide, those who thought Trudeau would make the best PM was highest in Quebec with 15%, followed by 14% support from Atlantic Canada, 13% from B.C., and 10% from Ontario. The lowest support came from Alberta at just 5%. Meanwhile, Poilievre's support was strongest among Alberta conservatives at 41%, followed by 33% in Ontario, 32% across Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and 29% in the Atlantic provinces. Interestingly, Poilievre’s support dipped to 22% within Quebec, with 80% of CPC supporters believing he would be the best choice for PM.

The recent Leger survey shows troubling statistics for Trudeau's administration. A substantial 72% of Canadians express dissatisfaction with the Trudeau Liberal government, reflecting wider sentiments of discontent. Only 23% claim to be satisfied, and out of those, just 4% report feeling ‘very satisfied’ with the PM’s performance. This disconnect is especially stark as 95% of Conservative voters voiced displeasure with Trudeau’s government.

The poll, conducted with 1,521 adult Canadians, took place from December 20-22, 2023. Notably, margins of error are not attributable to online panels like Leger’s, but the data could be likened to typical sampling, producing a margin of error of ±2.51% 19 times out of 20.

This apparent crisis of confidence for Trudeau raises telling questions about the future of the Liberal party. The results suggest not only declining support for Trudeau personally but also suggests the party's potential vulnerability leading to possible shifts within its leadership. While discussions abound about who might replace him, many Liberal supporters remain uncertain, leaving the door wide open for new leadership to emerge, as the national sentiment leans against the current administration.

The deepening dissatisfaction seen across Canada, coupled with lackluster support for Trudeau among his own party, heightens the pressures around his leadership role. Canadians' urging for change might force the Prime Minister's hand, as increasing numbers call for accountability and renewed direction. This situation will certainly have deep repercussions on the political climate as the next elections approach, and how Trudeau navigates these turbulent waters will be key to the Liberal party's future.

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