Tropical Storm Sara has formed, causing concern for states along the Gulf Coast, especially Florida. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the storm is expected to travel through the western Caribbean, potentially entering the Gulf of Mexico next week. While forecasters predict Sara will face significant weakening as it crosses over the Yucatan Peninsula, this does not entirely diminish the threat it poses to Florida.
Currently, as of Thursday evening, the storm has been tracking the coast of Honduras, projected to pass near Belize before influencing Florida's weather pattern by next week. There is rising concern for parts of Central America, with the NHC warning of "life-threatening flooding" due to forecasted heavy rains totaling between 10 to 20 inches, and possibly up to 30 inches in certain areas.
Craig Setzer, chief meteorologist for Royal Caribbean, emphasized the need for caution, advising residents: "While I’ve already heard a sigh of relief in Florida, history would say ‘Don’t stop watching this system yet’. I’m not saying it’s coming to Florida, I’m simply saying to not dismiss it and potentially be surprised later. I always say we never want to be surprised in hurricane season."
The long-range computer models have indicated shifting projections, with recent updates showing potential tracks for Sara leaning north along Florida's peninsula. Meteorologists remain on alert, especially considering the storm's interaction with land could starve it of the necessary fuel to intensify.
AccuWeather's latest advisories show varying levels of risk across seven states, which include Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Notably, Florida sits at both medium and high-risk thresholds, with South Florida facing the greatest likelihood of impacts. The NHC currently tracks Tropical Depression Nineteen, which is anticipated to officially become Tropical Storm Sara by Thursday evening.
Isaac Longley, an AccuWeather meteorologist, indicated the primary concern with Sara will be rainfall. Forecasts predict moisture from the storm pulling north due to interaction with a cold front and could lead to substantial rain for several states. Particularly, flooding could become problematic for Louisiana and parts of Mississippi as they prepare for incoming precipitation.
For Florida, the storm is expected to generate heavy downpours, especially around Wednesday night, along with gusty winds reaching up to 50 mph. Longley noted, "Nothing to the extent of what we saw with the recent hurricanes there in Florida, with Helene and Milton." The cold front will also help guide the storm's moisture eastward, affecting the Carolinas and potentially resulting in localized flooding.
While earlier forecasts suggested rapid intensification of the storm, the latest outlook indicates Sara will likely remain a tropical storm during its passage over Central America. Ocean conditions may still allow for some restrengthening once it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico. Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk from AccuWeather stated, "Should the current tropical depression ramp up after it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico and become a hurricane, it would be the fourth hurricane this season to hit Florida, surpassing the previous record of three landfalls set back in 2004."
With disaster preparedness always top of mind for residents along the Gulf, the potential arrival of Tropical Storm Sara serves as yet another reminder of the dangers posed during hurricane season. While there is hope Sara will weaken, the unpredictable nature of storms remains, encouraging continuous monitoring as shifting conditions could affect both the storm's path and intensity.
