Tropical Storm Sara has made quite the entrance this November, reminding everyone not to let their guard down just yet when it concerns the Atlantic hurricane season. This storm formed over the western Caribbean Sea and made landfall on Thursday, touching down on the northern coast of Honduras. What followed was nothing short of torrential rains, as Sara crawled its way through Central America, leaving chaos and concerns for those living along its path.
According to the Miami-based National Hurricane Center, the storm has the potential to dump as much as 40 inches (over one meter) of rain across various regions. That’s not just some minor rain shower; we’re talking about life-threatening conditions. Sara eventually moved over Belize on Sunday, with predictions pointing toward it dissipated over the Yucatan Peninsula early Monday.
Interestingly enough, Sara is the third named storm to pop up this November, following Tropical Storm Patty, which ignored land and dumped heavy rain over the Azores, and Hurricane Rafael, which had its own run-in as it barreled across Jamaica and Cuba as a formidable Category 3 hurricane.
This unusual level of activity at the tail end of the hurricane season typically only sees one named storm every few years. With more than two weeks remaining until the season wraps up on November 30, forecasters are on high alert.
For those unfamiliar, the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. While storms can technically form outside of this window, these months are statistically when conditions are just right for tropical storms to develop. With ocean temperatures needing to hit at least 79°F (26°C) for hurricanes to thrive, along with favorable atmospheric conditions, we usually expect fewer storms by now. Levi Silvers, a researcher at Colorado State University, explains this dynamic well, noting the rapidly shifting winds become less agreeable to storm formation as we move later in the fall.
November's reputation is mainly as the month where storms become less frequent and stronger intrusions of wind shear create havoc for any potential hurricanes. The stats speak for themselves: Between 1991 and 2020, November averaged about one tropical storm every one to two years, with hurricanes being even rarer, clocking at one every two years. Historically, since 1851, 125 tropical storms have been recorded during this time, with nearly half becoming hurricanes. Only twelve have transformed dramatically, showing winds above 110 mph (177 kph).
Nevertheless, the impact of previous storms is still fresh on the minds of residents. Take Hurricane Rafael, for example: it forced the evacuation of over 283,000 Cuban citizens and destroyed nearly 460 homes. These figures are haunting reminders of the vulnerability of the region as it braves another potential hurricane.
Constants like climate change are factors worth mentioning, as discussions abound about whether human activities affect the hurricane season’s timing. While some experts believe climate change is lengthening the hurricane threat thanks to warming oceans, others remain skeptical about its direct influence on hurricane formation and intensity. It’s clear, though, this year has seen its fair share of severe storms, raising eyebrows and concern among those monitoring coastal weather patterns.
Taking flight toward Honduras, Sara decided to move slightly faster as it began to churn through, particularly affecting the northern coast. Rainfall continued unabated throughout Saturday, with the city of San Pedro Sula experiencing the worst effects. Residents found their communities cut off as rivers swelled, and accessibility became increasingly dangerous. Storm surges accompanying Sara could raise water levels along the coasts by three feet above normal, according to updates from the Hurricane Center.
Among the impacted was Carlos Canelas, whose mother remained trapped at home due to flooding after ignoring warnings to evacuate the Flor de Cuba neighborhood. Stuck without much action they could take, Canelas expressed despair over their predicament, saying, “I can cross the river swimming, but how do I get my mother out?”
Over the weekend, conditions created by the storm have wreaked havoc across the region, presenting numerous challenges for the authorities and residents alike. The overarching concern remains the potential for flash floods and mudslides, with many recalling the torrential rains and devastation during the catastrophic November 2020 hurricane season, when storms Eta and Iota resulted in widespread displacement and destruction.
The present day ripples artfully echo past disasters, as people brace for the unexpected weather patterns. Day-to-day life has become interwoven with anxieties about what weather patterns might emerge next. Understanding the cyclical nature of these storms aids individuals to prepare, albeit it’s often easier said than done for those like Canelas.
Though it was tempting to believe the end of hurricane season was on the horizon, Tropical Storm Sara served to underline one reality: the weather doesn’t always adhere to our expectations or calendars. The Atlantic hasn't thrown its last storm away just yet, meaning vigilance remains key for those living along vulnerable coastlines.
