Météo France has announced the potential formation of a tropical storm near the Mascarene Islands, effective from February 25, 2025. The probability for this formation exceeds 60%, and if it materializes, the storm will be named Garance. Meteorologists warn of significant weather disruptions expected to hit La Réunion and Mauritius between Wednesday and Friday.
"The scale of the system remains uncertain as it depends on the intensity and path of the meteor," Météo France remarked. At present, the suspect area is moving from west to east, directly toward La Réunion and Mauritius, following an unusual route as typically these systems progress from east to west.
There is additional concern over another identified area of interest located to the south of the Mozambique Channel. According to meteorologists, the risk of tropical storm formation here is moderate starting February 26 (with probabilities ranging from 30 to 60%). This risk escalates to high on February 27, now exceeding 60% probability. Météo France previously estimated between 9 to 13 systems—ranging from storms to cyclones—could develop within this cyclone season, with 4 to 7 of these anticipated to reach tropical cyclone stages.
The cyclone season was marked as beginning on November 15, 2024, and is expected to conclude on April 30, 2025, with Mauritius and Seychelles maintaining cyclone seasons little longer, until May 15.
Moving beyond predictions, the southwest Indian Ocean is bracing for what may be a tumultuous week, with watching two distinct depressions gaining traction. These systems are situated north of the Mascarene Islands and within the Mozambique Channel, posing potential impacts to inhabited land over the coming days. Notably, La Réunion, Mauritius, and even Madagascar are likely to feel the aftereffects, necessitating careful regional monitoring.
Reports indicate Météo France Réunion has flagged significant threats from potential tropical storms beginning February 26. "The risk of tropical storm formation near the Mascarene Islands is significant starting Wednesday," experts commented. Meanwhile, conditions suggest the Mozambique Channel may also see developmental activity, with probabilities labelled moderate starting Thursday, February 27.
While meteorologists keep vigilant watch of the storm potentials, they implore residents of impacted regions to prepare for the possibility of adverse weather. This advisory serves as both warning and encouragement for nearby communities to assess their readiness for potential emergency conditions.