A tropical depression, numbered 07, is currently positioned 660 kilometers northeast of La Réunion, moving slowly west-southwest at 20 km/h. Météo France is keeping close tabs on its progression. This weather system, which is presently characterized by average winds of 55 km/h and gusts of up to 75 km/h, is classified as weak due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions. Nonetheless, as it draws near Madagascar, its intensity may evolve.
On Saturday evening, the system is expected to pass south of the Saint Brandon archipelago. By Sunday, it will circulate north of Mauritius, resulting in heavy rainfall over Saint Brandon and moderate weather degradation across Mauritius. Later the same evening, the depression's approach—about 250 kilometers north of La Réunion—could coincide with stronger winds impacting the north and south of the island, accompanied by rain particularly over the eastern and southeastern regions.
By Tuesday morning, the depression is forecasted to make landfall on the east coast of Madagascar, likely intensified to the status of a tropical storm. Following its passage over Madagascar, the depression might exit through the Mozambique Channel later the week with potential additional strengthening.
At 10:00 AM local time on February 1, Météo France highlighted the depression's evolution over the Indian Ocean. At this point, the system was located 785 km northeast of La Réunion, moving at 17 km/h and maintaining winds of 55 km/h with notable gusts of 75 km/h. Currently, conditions are not conducive to rapid intensification, and forecasts suggest the depression will continue moving west, possibly turning to moderate tropical storm conditions as it approaches Madagascar.
The immediate impact on the region predicts significant rainfall across Saint Brandon and moderate effects on Mauritius due to the system's passage. For La Réunion, by Sunday, weather changes are expected as the system moves close, bringing strong winds predominantly to the northern and southern regions of the island, along with increased rainfall from the east and southeast through Monday.
Forecasters also noted, "Il avait affirmé que la dépression tropicale numéro 7 ne représentait rien d’exceptionnel pour le département," clarifying to the public the lack of severe immediacy concerning this weather system. The prefecture has confirmed potential adverse weather, saying, "Une dégradation des conditions météorologiques était toutefois attendue dimanche," urging the public to prepare for the likelihood of heavy precipitation and wind gusts reaching 90 km/h.
From the onset of the meteorological alerts, the regions of northern, eastern, southeastern, and southern La Réunion will see vigilance for strong winds activated by 7 AM on Sunday, February 2. The western region of La Réunion is expected to remain unaffected by these strong winds, with only localized, mild showers forecasted throughout the day.
While many areas will see overcast skies by the afternoon, Saint-Pierre is predicted to remain sunny due to southeast winds reaching speeds of 80 km/h at peak gusts. The wider region of La Réunion will need to be prepared for unstable weather conditions until temperatures stabilize after the departure of the system.
By the close of this week, weather patterns indicate this system could exit the Madagascar coastline, possibly re-entering the Mozambique Channel and intensifying again heading toward the eastern basin. The public is advised to stay informed and adhere to updates provided by Météo France to maintain awareness of any future developments.
All residents are urged to monitor conditions closely as forecasts could adjust, emphasizing the urgency of reliable weather following the travel path of Tropical Depression 07 as it influences both La Réunion and potentially Madagascar.