Queensland communities are bracing for the possibility of severe weather as meteorologists warn of the potential formation of a tropical cyclone off the state’s east coast this weekend. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has indicated there is a high chance for this development, as a tropical low, currently dubbed 22U, is anticipated to coalesce off the northeastern Queensland coast.
This tropical low is projected to emerge on Thursday and may strengthen as it continues to develop over the northern Coral Sea. According to senior meteorologist Jonathan How, conditions conducive for cyclone formation are already underway. “We are monitoring a tropical low off the north coast of Queensland — it hasn’t formed yet but it is expected to form today,” How stated on Thursday.
The BOM predicts this tropical low will initially drift slowly east or southeast, remaining safely away from the Queensland coastline. Yet, How suggested, “After it forms today, it is expected to develop … and has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone as of tomorrow.” The tropic system's chances of intensifying become more promising by Saturday and Sunday.
The expected movements of the tropical low are particularly intriguing. It is purported to transition away from the coast toward the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, but simulation models hint at the distinct possibility of it reversing course and heading back toward southeastern Queensland. Some forecasts suggested, “Some of the computer models show (the cyclone) in southeastern parts of Queensland — it’s certainly one to watch,” How commented, highlighting the uncertainty inherent with cyclone trajectories.
Marking the cyclone progression, How underscored: “The tropical low will move slowly to the southeast and could develop as early as Friday, but more likely later on the weekend.” While all eyes remain focused on this developing system, meteorologists are also tracking another tropical low, 21U, forming well off the coast of Western Australia. This second system, too, has the potential to escalate to cyclone status but is also predicted to stay adrift, well away from the mainland.
The most pressing concern remains for Queensland residents, many of whom are still recovering from recent flooding. Local communities remain on high alert with expectations of increased rainfall across flood-affected areas as associated weather patterns from the cyclone could envelop wider regions, even if landfall is not imminent.
There’s cautionary advice for southern regions of Queensland, where changing weather could lead to thunderstorms today, particularly affecting Northern Queensland, along with central and southeastern areas. “It is important for Queenslanders right along the coast to stay up to date with forecasts and have their cyclone plans ready to go,” How stated, emphasizing the necessity of preparedness.
This cyclone season has already been marked by significant events, none perhaps more impactful than Tropical Cyclone Zelia, which pummeled Western Australia last week as it reached category four intensity. The cyclone unleashed destructive winds, gusts recorded at 270km/h near its core, and left behind torrential rain across coastal regions.
If the formation of the cyclone does occur as expected, it will likely be christened either Alfred or Bianca, according to BOM naming protocols. The naming might become complicated, as another tropical low developing will be designated as 21U, also pending classification as Alfred, which was initially intended to be named Anthony — a change made to avoid confusion with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
While the conversations around cyclones may lead some to be anxious, meteorologists urge the public to remain informed and proactive. “The tropical low is expected to stay well away from the Queensland coast for the next seven days but does have the potential to bring increased rainfall to the tropical north,” How concluded. He reassured locals not to expect rainfall intensities reminiscent of the recent flooding but advised vigilance nonetheless.
With the BOM’s adept forecasting, the residents of Queensland can prepare adequately, keeping safety at the forefront as they navigate through what could possibly be another cyclone threat. The situation remains fluid, and updates will continue to flow as meteorologists monitor the developing systems closely.