On Tuesday, January 28, 2025, meteorologists are closely monitoring the development of tropical cyclone Elvis, which has emerged as the sixth depressional system of the cyclone season within the Mozambique Channel. Currently located approximately 250 kilometers off the coast of Madagascar, this system is projected to intensify from a tropical disturbance to moderate tropical storm status by the day's end.
The system was reported by Météo France, indicating it has exhibited enhanced strength over the last 48 hours and is moving at 11 km/h toward the south-southeast. At 4 AM local time on January 28, meteorological coordinates indicated its position at 24.2 degrees South and 41.8 degrees East with maximum winds assessed at 55 km/h and gusts reaching up to 75 km/h.
Rainfall from this system has already prompted significant weather disruption. Over the previous weekend, the Eastern Madagascar province of Toliara reported extraordinary rainfall, exceeding 500 millimeters within just 24 hours, particularly near Morombe. This deluge has created concerns about flooding as the storm front draws closer.
Forecasters have expressed their predictions with caution, recognizing the inherent uncertainties tied to the intensity and final tracking of Elvis. The available data suggests it will meander slowly south-southeast, thereby positioning itself increasingly closer to Toliara's shores.
"This system is expected to evolve over the next 12 hours, gradually intensifying and potentially reaching tropical storm status by the end of Tuesday," stated Météo France. The agency urged local residents to remain vigilant and monitor updates from national meteorological services.
Looking forward, Elvis is projected to divert its motion southwest beginning Wednesday, which could lead to even more severe weather conditions along coastlines. The heavy rains threaten to exacerbate flooding risks already present due to the prolonged downpours of recent days.
Authorities have warned of strong local winds and rough seas off the coast of Mozambique, particularly affecting the province of Toliara and areas near the province of Inhambane. Coastal residents are advised to take precautions as conditions could become dangerously unpredictable.
Current forecasts for Elvis indicate:
- Moderate tropical storm, center positioned at 24.2° S and 41.8° E on January 28 at 4 PM
- Forecast as moderate tropical storm on January 29 at 4 PM, center at 26.1° S and 42.8° E
- Expected continued progression and evolution through January 31
- Transitioning possibly to post-tropical conditions by February 2
The potential of hurricane-strength winds and continued heavy rains raises the specter of natural disasters for the coastal communities. Residents are advised to heed warnings and prepare for possible evacuations or safety measures as needed.
People living along the path of Elvis are urged to keep abreast of the latest developments through their respective meteorological authorities. With changing atmospheric conditions, the situation will be monitored closely, and responses will be adjusted as needed.