Tropical Cyclone Alfred is bracing southeastern Queensland, prompting thousands of Australians to heed emergency weather warnings as the storm nears New South Wales. The cyclone's western edge is having immediate effects on the eastern coastline, and forecasters fear it will cross the shore early on Friday morning, March 7, 2025. Destructive wind gusts, intense storms, and heavy rainfall are expected to impact vast areas of Queensland and northern New South Wales, with landfall anticipated between the Gold Coast and southern Wide Bay region.
Current predictions suggest Alfred will arrive as a category 2 cyclone, potentially sparking extreme weather conditions across the region. Last year marked the hottest on record across the globe, and Australia, particularly its oceans, experienced significant warming which experts believe is affecting cyclone patterns. Tropical cyclones like Alfred necessitate ocean temperatures of at least 26.5°C and low wind shear to form. It is upon this backdrop of climate concern and necessary preparedness as Alfred approaches.
Dr. Savin Chand, a leading expert on tropical cyclones and climate change at Federation University, indicated the complexity behind cyclone formations. While the incidence of tropical cyclones has decreased by 13% within the 20th century, the remaining storms are witnessing increased intensity due to environmental changes. “Climate change isn’t causing tropical cyclones to form because they have been forming for millennia,” Chand explained. “But the environment in which they’re forming is becoming more hostile [to their formation]. Yet when they do form, we know sea surface temperatures are much warmer now than they used to be.”
Research indicates Cyclone Alfred materialized over warm waters of the Coral Sea toward the end of February, where temperatures were nearly 1°C above average. Just as this cyclone emerged under increasingly favorable conditions, it also inadvertently spurred the formation of two other cyclones, Rae and Seru. The local conditions leading to Alfred's path include rising ocean temperatures off the coast of Brisbane, reported to be between 0.5°C and 1°C higher than normal.
On March 4, 2025, Cyclone Alfred entered proximity with high-pressure systems more common at lower latitudes, deftly pushing it westward toward Queensland's coast. By March 5, the cyclone was advancing through this weather zone, predicted to make landfall on March 7 as forecasters maintain close observation on its strengthening.
Dr. Andrew Dowdy, another expert on tropical cyclones at the University of Melbourne, highlighted how climate change amplifies cyclones' impacts. “Climate change has heated the oceans so the dice are loaded for greater chances of hot water around Australia,” Dowdy stated. “These hot ocean temperatures can help supercharge tropical cyclones with more extreme rainfall and flood risks.” The cyclical nature of warm air contributing to intense rainfall has also been noted, with the atmosphere capable of holding 7% more moisture for every degree of warming.
On top of the current cyclone warnings, authorities and scientists are bracing for the severe risks associated with Alfred's approach. The three main dangers they foresee include damage resulting from extreme wind gusts, from torrential downpour causing flooding, and from storm surges and damaging waves threatening coastal communities. The increase in global sea levels—already noted to have risen by 20 cm due to climate change—compounds the potential destruction. Flood risks, particularly around tidal waterways such as the Brisbane River and coastal areas, are even more grave considering the impacts of these seasonal storms.
Dowdy’s assessments have led him to advise infrastructure and building planners to take the growing intensity of storms due to climate change seriously. He noted, “Each degree of warming could increase rainfall by as much as 15%.” Planning for cyclone events needs to incorporate the realities of higher temperature thresholds contributing to extreme weather conditions.
With Cyclone Alfred approaching, it has become evident the upcoming week will demand vigilance from local communities across Queensland and northern New South Wales. The impacts of this cyclone are predicted to demonstrate how the warming environment, driven by climate change, influences not only storm intensity but also the longevity of the infrastructure built to withstand these tests.
Local forecasters have established extensive warnings to prepare the public, emphasizing the urgent need to respond to the impending weather threats. Efforts continue to protect lives, properties, and resources as Tropical Cyclone Alfred draws near to shore.