Tropical Cyclone Alfred is wreaking havoc along the Queensland coast, presenting significant threats of damaging winds, coastal flooding, and erosion. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has warned residents across south-east Queensland and northern New South Wales to prepare for potential landfall later this week as the cyclone continues its slow, unpredictable path toward the shore.
Early Sunday morning, Alfred was reported to be 510 kilometers east of Rockhampton and projected to maintain at least category two intensity throughout the day. According to senior meteorologist Felim Hanniffy, localised damaging wind gusts could reach up to 90 kilometers per hour, particularly around K'gari (formerly known as Fraser Island).
A significant hazard warning has been issued due to the large and powerful seas expected to develop over the next several days, with severe coastal hazards being reported from Seventeen Seventy down to the exposed south-east coast. BoM highlighted the potential for substantial coastal erosion, with Woodgate Beach, south of Bundaberg, experiencing destructive wave action this weekend.
Local resident, Pauline Greer, who serves as president of the Woodgate District Resident's Association, expressed her distress over the erosion caused by the rough seas, especially following recent investments by the Bundaberg Regional Council aimed at beach replenishment and coastal fortification. "With the threat of the cyclone still coming, it's quite shattering," Greer said. "You can't fight Mother Nature." She added, lamenting the loss of the community’s previous efforts to protect the beach.
Authorities have been on high alert as water levels rise, especially around the Pumicestone Passage on Bribie Island. Flooding concerns are mounting amid fears of widespread inundation if Alfred veers closer to shore. Jen Kettleton-Butler from the Pumicestone Passage Catchment Management Board stated, "I fear it's too late for our island. I'm worried sick…" The Queensland Police have reminded coastal communities to remain vigilant and ready for localized flooding.
Authorities have also made contact with Lithuanian national Aurimas Mockus, who is aboard a seagoing rowing boat traveling from San Diego to Brisbane. After receiving an emergency beacon alert Friday night, responders established communication with Mockus, who remains 740 kilometers east of Mackay. The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Choules is en route to assist him safely from the severe weather setting up over the area.
Experts have noted the unusual duration of Cyclone Alfred's presence off the Queensland coast, where it has been sustained by warm sea temperatures exceeding 27 degrees Celsius. Meteorologist Felim Hanniffy pointed out the cyclical nature of weather patterns affecting cyclones and emphasized the unpredictable paths of these systems, noting, "It's unusual for a cyclone to linger off the coast for such a long time." Possible rainfall predictions will greatly depend on how the cyclone’s course evolves.
Alfred is anticipated to begin turning westward from Tuesday as it interacts with high-pressure systems, leading to fears of it making landfall near Brisbane on Thursday, March 6. Weather models suggest there could be significant impacts for residents near the coast and beyond.
Thomas Hinterdorfer from Higgins Storm Chasing has reinforced the urgency of these forecasts, predicting landfall could occur as early as mid-week. "It's been 33 years since a tropical cyclone has made landfall as a categorised system in southeastern QLD," he stated, adding, "And it looks like the drought is about to come to an end." The BoM is emphasizing the importance of staying updated with storm paths on their website as they evolve.
After its anticipated landfall, Alfred's most serious threat may be heavy rainfall, with expert forecasts predicting widespread accumulation of 50-100 mm across the entire region, and up to 600 mm in more severely impacted areas. Previous cyclones have caused significant flooding throughout Queensland, including the catastrophic events of 1974, when Cyclone Wanda led to unprecedented flood levels. This time, forecasters warn of flash flooding risks with rainfall rates possibly hitting 250 mm within short periods.
The effects are set to compound with damaging waves along the coast. Forecasts predict wave heights could reach upwards of 17 meters as the cyclone approaches, substantially heightening the risk of beach erosion and inundation conditions. Areas such as Byron Bay are expected to experience the most intense wave activity.
Queensland State Disaster Management Committee has convened authorities to prepare for the potential impacts of Alfred. Residents have been urged to heed warnings and take safety precautions as conditions are predicted to worsen through the week. Local police are actively patrolling beaches, examining for signs of erosion, and organizing preparations for potential flooding impacts.
Reports indicate the overarching power of the cyclone will necessitate proactive responses from emergency services and communities along the path to prepare for whatever Alfred might bring. Residents are reminded to keep close tabs on cyclone advisories and engage with community planning measures to mitigate risks.
Without question, tropical cyclones pose major hazards, and with Cyclone Alfred's complex and potentially devastating path, it is imperative for the affected areas to remain vigilant as the situation continues to develop.