Brisbane is bracing for the impact of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, which is set to make landfall late Thursday, March 6, or early Friday morning, March 7, 2025. The category two storm is on course to hit southeast Queensland’s densely populated coastline, prompting concerns about potential flooding and severe weather conditions.
The latest forecasts indicate Alfred, which some models suggest may intensify to low-end Category 3 status, could cross between the Sunshine Coast and Fraser Island. A warning zone spanning 650 kilometers from Double Island Point to Grafton has been issued. This area includes major population centers such as Brisbane, the Gold Coast, and Byron Bay.
The Bureau of Meteorology has highlighted the risks posed by Cyclone Alfred, predicting winds of up to 155 kilometers per hour and exceptionally heavy rain. "People between Double Island Point and Grafton should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property," they advised. The last significant tropical cyclone to make landfall near Brisbane was ex-Tropical Cyclone Zoe, which occurred 50 years ago.
Authorities estimate approximately 20,000 homes across Brisbane may face flooding risk, with local council modeling indicating serious concerns for suburbs including Brighton, Windsor, and Ashgrove. Brisbane Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner pointed out, "These properties could experience anything from minor inundation to significant flooding inside homes."
The cyclone has already generated active responses from both local government and emergency services, with Brisbane's Premier David Crisafulli urging residents to prepare for possible destruction. With waves of up to 7 meters recorded off North Stradbroke Island and forecasts indicating over 700 millimeters of rainfall, communities are being put on high alert.
"There’s potential for isolated regions to receive more than 1,000 millimeters of rain," said Weatherzone. Schools across the Northern Rivers have temporarily closed, with additional closures anticipated. More than 100 schools have been shut, with statewide precautions being emphasized as the cyclone approaches.
Local transport is also feeling the effects, as major airlines, including Jetstar, Qantas, and Virgin Australia, have canceled flights from Ballina Byron Gateway Airport due to Alfred's approach. The cancellations are part of broader travel disruption as the risk of storm conditions increases. Meanwhile, thousands have flocked to sandbag depots to safeguard their properties, causing long wait times amid public anxiety about the cyclone.
Local stores have seen panic buying, reminiscent of past natural disasters. "We’re seeing people rushing to stock up on essentials like water and toilet paper," noted Troy, manager of Sam Coco Trading. The demand reflects community apprehension following Cyclone Zoe's historical impact.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred, which formed nine days ago over the Coral Sea, initially displayed erratic behavior, tracking southward before shifting back toward the coast. It has retained its structure more southerly than usual, surprising meteorologists who describe Coral Sea storms as notoriously unpredictable.
Steve Turton, an Adjunct Professor of Environmental Geography at CQUniversity Australia, highlighted the unpredictable nature of such cyclones. "Cyclones forming over the Coral Sea are known for erratic paths, which frustrates coastal residents and forecasters alike," he said.
Understanding the risks posed by Alfred is challenging. Winds aloft can push cyclones toward land or pull them back out to sea. The uncertain steering currents make it more difficult to predict cyclone behavior compared to those forming elsewhere.
Residents have also been advised to prepare evacuation plans. With heavy rainfall anticipated to trigger flooding, the NSW Emergency Services Minister has urged individuals to take immediate action if located near coastal or low-lying areas. High tide coinciding with the cyclone’s landfall heightens the situation’s severity.
The cyclone is expected to impact the entire coastal zone from K'gari to Byron Bay, leading to beach erosion and damaging surf conditions. Local authorities are ramping up preparation, with emergency services on standby, ready to assist vulnerable communities.
More than 100,000 sandbags have been distributed across Brisbane, reflecting serious community mobilization against what could be the most significant weather event of the decade. This unprecedented situation is prompting heightened public awareness, as cities prepare for the potential devastation of Cyclone Alfred.
Queensland, known for its tropical storms, is finding itself at the crossroads of uncertainty and preparedness. Authorities continue to evaluate the storm’s impact, sharing updates with the community as they arise.