Tropical Cyclone Alfred is intensifying as it approaches the southeast coast of Australia, raising concerns of substantial impact across southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. Currently classified as a category 2 cyclone, Alfred is expected to make landfall early on Friday morning, March 7, between Maroochydore and Coolangatta. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has issued warnings across a wide area, anticipating the cyclone could potentially strengthen to a low-end category 3 before hitting the coastline.
According to BOM officials, the cyclone, which has been slowly moving westward for almost two weeks, was about 465 kilometers east of Brisbane as of Wednesday morning, traveling at approximately 11 km/h. Although the BOM indicated the likelihood of Alfred reaching category 3 strength is fairly low, they have not entirely ruled out this possibility. “The possibility of the system reaching a low-end category 3 strength before making landfall cannot be ruled out,” stated the BOM, highlighting the unpredictable nature of tropical cyclones.
Brisbane Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner also voiced concerns, noting projections suggest nearly 20,000 properties could be at risk of storm surge or flooding as the cyclone approaches. Warnings have been issued stretching from Double Island Point to Grafton, with specific advisories for high-risk areas like Brisbane, the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Byron Bay, and Ballina.
Forecasts predict damaging wind gusts up to 120 km/h throughout the day on Wednesday, with expectations for destructive winds reaching as high as 155 km/h as the cyclone's core gets closer to the coast. This approaching storm may cause dangerous storm surges, particularly if it crosses the coast during high tide on Friday morning. Authorities warn some low-lying areas, especially canal communities along the Gold Coast, could see significant inundation.
Destruction from Alfred is already being felt, with beaches warned about potential severe erosion due to damaging surf from Sandy Cape to Grafton. Commencing Thursday, both southeastern Queensland and northeastern NSW residents can expect heavy rain, which might lead to life-threatening flash flooding as the cyclone's center moves inland. Historical flooding incidents, such as those experienced in February 2022, have heightened local anxiety.
Unique atmospheric conditions have contributed to Alfred’s unusual intensification as it has remained stronger than typically expected for storms this far south. Coupled with warm coastal waters and reduced vertical wind shear, these factors have allowed the cyclone to maintain its structure, unlike many others which weaken as they near land.
With the cyclone expected to pass over warmer East Australia Current waters, forecasters believe Alfred may strengthen significantly before landfall. “Tropical cyclones draw their energy from warm oceans, and current temperatures are conducive to intensification,” noted meteorologist Alison Osborne from Sky News Australia. She indicated the destructiveness of the cyclone could greatly depend on its speed as it approaches the coast. Should it slow down, the chances of reaching category 3 status could increase.
Residents of Brisbane and surrounding communities are preparing for the impending storm, with supermarkets authorized to restock 24/7 to mitigate food shortages as authorities work to keep shelves supplied. Queensland Premier David Crisafulli stated direct discussions were held with supermarkets to facilitate this. “The connectivity issue experienced previously isn’t prevalent here, which allows for resupply efforts to proceed smoothly,” Crisafulli noted.
Preparations and precautionary measures are being emphasized by local officials who warn residents to listen to the BOM’s advisories closely. Emergency services remain on alert, ready to respond to any surges of flooding or other dangers brought on by Cyclone Alfred. For immediate needs and crisis assistance, residents are urged to contact the State Emergency Service.
With wind and rain expected to pick up significantly as the week progresses, it’s imperative for everyone living along Alfred’s projected path to stay informed about the cyclone's developments and heed safety warnings. The situation is fluid, with potential shifts in the cyclone's intensity and movement, so continuous following of updates is strongly encouraged.
Onlookers can expect increased storm activity over the next few days. Cyclone Alfred serves as not just a reminder of the power of nature, but also the necessity of preparedness and community action when faced with threatening weather systems. While the immediate focus is on safeguarding lives and properties, authorities will need to manage the repercussions of this natural disaster as it emerges over the horizon.