Tropical Cyclone Alfred is rapidly intensifying as it churns through the Coral Sea, with predictions pointing to its evolution from category two to category three by Wednesday.
Currently situated approximately 970 kilometers northeast of Mackay and 570 kilometers east-northeast of Willis Island, the cyclone has been moving slowly southeast. It continues to strengthen, raising concerns among meteorologists about its potential path and impact on Queensland's already flood-stricken regions.
"The cyclone is forecast to turn east today and continue to intensify through to Thursday or Friday," said Dean Narramore, senior meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). He noted, "There are various scenarios on how this may play out over the weekend, some of which could see it moving toward the coast, others taking it farther south, and even some predicting it may weaken below cyclone strength by the start of next week."
The imminent intensification of Alfred has prompted wide-ranging warnings. Residents are urged to prepare for the possibility of hazardous weather, with gusts already reaching up to 130 kilometers per hour reported. Premier David Crisafulli emphasized during recent discussions with emergency services the importance of preparation. He stated, "With severe weather events on the horizon, it is wise to have emergency plans and supplies at hand. Look around your property and secure any loose items."
Given its gradual movement, Alfred is projected to remain well off the Queensland coast for the immediate future, but the cyclone could still affect areas from the Herbert, Lower Burdekin, and Wide Bay down to central Queensland.
"While there’s not much immediate impact expected, we could see some isolated coastal showers and gusty winds toward those areas," Mr. Narramore stated. The BOM has already issued strong wind warnings for coastal waters extending from Townsville to K’Gari for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Among the precautionary measures being recommended, the State Emergency Service (SES) has counseled residents to trim overhanging branches and secure outdoor furniture before any severe weather strikes. Jasper Humphries, controller of the SES for Rockhampton, underscored the necessity of being proactive. "It's always best to be prepared before severe weather approaches," he advised.
Delays have already begun to emerge from the effects of Cyclone Alfred. A musical festival planned on Great Keppel Island has been postponed due to fears of adverse wind conditions over the weekend, marking the cyclone's first disruption before it has even made landfall.
While current forecasts suggest Alfred's slow movement will keep it away from the coast for now, the potential paths it could take remain uncertain. The BOM continues to monitor the cyclone closely, advising the public to stay informed using their tracking maps as updates are released.
Encouragingly for residents recovering from severe flooding, the immediate forecast for Queensland's inland areas appears relatively mild. Residents from Mackay to Cairns, who were battered by extensive rains leading to evacuations and severe damage, are expected to see clearer skies and drier conditions this week. The situation is still precarious though, as the same weather patterns fostering Alfred's intensification could render the area vulnerable if the cyclone veers toward land.
"February 2025 was already the wettest month on record for some parts of Queensland, with places like Paluma recording more than two meters of rain—double the annual average for Sydney. So any additional rainfall from Alfred could exacerbate our vulnerabilities," said Mr. Narramore.
For now, preparations remain key as Tropical Cyclone Alfred continues to intensify off the coast, with the uncertainty of its eventual path keeping residents on high alert. The BOM is expected to issue more updates throughout the week as the cyclone’s developments continue to evolve.