Rumors of a potential major earthquake in Japan have sparked concern among Hong Kong citizens, significantly impacting their willingness to travel to the country. This fear has led to a notable reduction in flight bookings, prompting Hong Kong Airlines to announce on April 15, 2025, that it will cut the frequency of flights to Fukuoka, Nagoya, and Sapporo during May and June of this year.
In a proactive move to address passenger concerns, Hong Kong Airlines stated that it would inform affected passengers about changes to their flights, arrange alternative travel options, or offer ticket refunds to ensure passenger rights are protected. The airline expressed regret for any inconvenience caused and pledged to assist affected travelers in making suitable arrangements.
Despite the current situation, Hong Kong Airlines emphasized its commitment to expanding its route network, with plans to launch new flights to Hohhot, Inner Mongolia by the end of April and to Sanya in June. Additionally, the Vancouver route will increase to daily flights starting May 25, 2025.
An insider from the aviation industry revealed that several airlines are making similar adjustments in response to changing market conditions. This trend is not isolated to Hong Kong Airlines; Greater Bay Airlines has also announced a reduction in its Hong Kong-Tokushima flights from three to two per week beginning on May 12, 2025, citing the same market considerations.
Local travel agencies in Hong Kong have felt the impact of these developments acutely. EGL Tours, one of the city's travel agencies, reported that the number of Japan tour groups during the Easter holiday was only half of what it was last year. Yuen Chun-ning, the Executive Director of EGL Tours, noted on April 15 that despite efforts to attract customers through promotions—such as price reductions, earthquake refund guarantees, and free travel for children—confidence among potential travelers remains low.
Yuen Chun-ning explained that the number of tour groups heading to Japan is expected to be lower than last year, as many parents are hesitant to book trips. Some customers are even considering postponing their travel plans to the autumn or winter months. This cautious approach comes amid reports of an oversupply of flights to Japan, resulting in airlines needing to adjust flight frequencies and explore new routes to mainland China to avoid aircraft idling.
Interestingly, while travel to Japan has seen a downturn, Yuen Chun-ning observed an uptick in tour group numbers to other regions, including mainland China, Greece, Australia, and Dubai. This suggests that while travelers may be avoiding Japan, they are still eager to explore other destinations.
In addition to the changes in flight schedules, Cathay Pacific has also slashed its summer holiday airfares to Japan, with prices dropping to just over 2,000 HKD, which includes 23 kg of luggage. This marks a significant reduction, approximately 20% lower than prices earlier this year, and represents a new low for Cathay Pacific fares in recent years.
Amid these developments, the Japanese government has been proactive in addressing earthquake fears. On March 31, 2025, it released a risk assessment report indicating that the probability of a major earthquake occurring in the Nanhai Trough over the next 30 years has increased from 70% to 80%. This alarming statistic has raised concerns about the potential impact of such an earthquake, which could affect a vast area from Okinawa in the west to Fukushima in the east, with estimates of 298,000 fatalities and economic losses reaching 1.8 trillion USD.
In light of these warnings, the Chinese Embassy in Japan has issued a notice urging Chinese citizens to take precautions against earthquake disasters. The notice includes advice on enhancing awareness of earthquake prevention, understanding self-rescue techniques, and preparing emergency supplies such as drinking water, food, and disaster relief items. It also emphasizes the importance of staying updated on earthquake dynamics and local government instructions for evacuation.
Travelers are advised to register for "Overseas Citizen Registration" through the "China Consular APP" or the WeChat mini-program to facilitate timely contact and assistance in case of a disaster. Furthermore, the notice provides essential emergency contact numbers in Japan, including those for police, fire and ambulance services, and maritime incidents.
As the situation develops, both the aviation industry and local travel agencies continue to navigate the challenges posed by the earthquake rumors. While airlines adjust their flight schedules and local agencies offer promotions to entice travelers, the lingering fears of a major earthquake in Japan remain a significant hurdle in restoring customer confidence.
With the summer holiday season approaching, the industry is keenly observing travel trends and consumer sentiment. The hope is that as travelers weigh their options, the allure of Japan will eventually regain its appeal, but for now, the impact of earthquake fears looms large over travel plans.
