Transnistria, the breakaway region of Moldova, faces dire consequences as the region's industrial sector grinds to a halt following the cessation of Russian gas supplies. Sergey Obolonik, first deputy chairman of the Transnistrian administration, confirmed on January 2, 2023, the significant collapse of industrial activity, stating, "All industrial facilities have been shut down except for those ensuring Transnistria's food security. There is no energy resource available for the industrial sector." This suspension of energy supply highlights the delicate balance of power and reliance on external resources.
On January 1, Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned energy giant, announced it would no longer supply gas to Moldova, citing unpaid debts from the state energy company, Moldovagaz. The Moldovan government argues these debts lack verification from international audits. The cut-off coincided with the expiration of agreements allowing gas transit through Ukraine, adding to the turmoil and energy crisis faced by Transnistria.
The impact of this crisis is severe: nearly 75,000 households have lost gas supply, and another 116,000 are receiving significantly reduced volumes. Heating outages are widespread, with local energy authorities urging families to take precautions such as gathering in single rooms to stay warm, covering windows with blankets, and using electric heaters to combat the biting cold of winter.
Obolonik described the situation as "grave," warning of long-lasting effects on the region’s industrial capacity. He emphasized the potential for irreversible damage if the gas supply issues persist: "The problem is of such a global nature... if it remains unresolved for long, we will face irreversible changes," he noted. Many industries now idle aside from food production, which is deemed necessary for securing food supplies.
These developments follow the Moldovan government’s earlier declaration of energy sector emergency measures, initiated mid-December, anticipating shortages during the winter. Moldova is taking steps to mitigate the fallout from this crisis; it plans to import electricity from Romania and Ukraine to meet its own needs—strategizing to import 62% from Romania and supplementing with local thermal plants and renewables.
Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean criticized Russia for using energy as what he called "a political weapon," reflective of widespread concerns within Europe as countries look to diminish their dependency on Russian energy sources. Moldova, aiming for EU membership by 2030, must navigate these challenges whilst enhancing its energy security and independence.
Within Transnistria, Russian troops have maintained presence since intervention during the early 1990s under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians. The population, largely Russian-speaking, has relied on these ties with Moscow for energy supplies. Yet, the current situation brings pressure not only to the households but also to the industries, which are simply unable to operate under these constraints.
The horizon looks increasingly bleak as the energy crisis continues. With the closure of major industries—almost the entire industrial sector aside from food production—Transnistria now experiences interruptions across the board. Local authorities have indicated some form of gas reserves which may last for ten days under limited usage; meanwhile, solutions need to be found to maintain heating and energy supply to residents.
Transnistria's authorities indicated willingness to explore purchasing gas from European platforms, which potentially opens new avenues for negotiations. Vadim Cheban, head of Moldovagaz, expressed readiness to assist the Transnistrian administration to secure energy resources under market terms, reflecting hope amid chaos.
The ramifications of these energy supply disruptions extend beyond mere economics; they strike at the heart of regional stability and security. A prolonged energy crisis could embolden tensions within Moldova and the broader region as nations react to increasing instability fueled by energy shortages.
European and global energy dynamics are shifting as the continent moves away from reliance on Russian gas due to the war in Ukraine. The end of Russian gas transit, referred by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as "one of Moscow’s biggest defeats," has led the country to seek alternative energy sources from places like Norway and Qatar.
With every passing day, the people of Transnistria face uncertainty, and the outlook for both the region and Moldova hinges heavily upon resolving these energy disputes. This complex web of politics, energy dependencies, and regional security continues to play out, leaving many questions about the future and stability of Transnistria and its inhabitants.