The trade war between the United States and China could result in significant job losses in German industry, according to a recent research report published by Allianz Trade on Friday, May 9, 2025. The report highlights that if no agreement is reached between Washington and Beijing, Chinese exporters are likely to increasingly target European markets, with Germany as a primary focus.
Jasmin Groschl, a senior economist at Allianz Trade, predicted in the report that between 17,000 and 25,000 manufacturing jobs could be lost in Germany due to the influx of Chinese goods and the heightened competition they bring. This figure corresponds to approximately 0.2% to 0.3% of total employment in the German industrial sector.
Groschl emphasized that several industries are particularly at risk, including mechanical engineering, textiles, non-metallic mineral products, electronics, computers, and motor vehicles. He noted that the ongoing tariff war has significantly disrupted global trade dynamics, placing German companies under pressure from two fronts. First, they face increased competition from Chinese imports, and second, they are contending with supply chains that are closely linked to China.
According to Allianz Trade's analysis, without a bilateral agreement, the loss of Chinese exports to the United States could reach a staggering $239 billion. In response, Chinese companies are likely to seek entry into other international markets, potentially exporting around $80 billion to the European Union.
The report further indicates that if no agreement on tariffs is reached, goods worth approximately $33 billion could enter Germany over the next three years. This influx could increase Germany's total imports by 2.5%, adding to the already significant challenges faced by German manufacturers.
As the trade war continues, the implications for the German economy are becoming increasingly pronounced. The reliance on exports has long been a cornerstone of Germany's economic model, and the potential for job losses in key sectors raises concerns about the long-term stability of the industry.
In the wake of these findings, the German government and industry leaders may need to reassess their strategies to mitigate the impact of the trade war and ensure the protection of jobs. The situation remains fluid, and stakeholders are closely monitoring developments in U.S.-China relations.
While the focus has often been on the direct effects of tariffs and trade barriers, the broader consequences for employment and economic stability are now coming into sharper focus. As trade tensions escalate, the need for a resolution becomes ever more pressing.
In conclusion, the findings from Allianz Trade serve as a wake-up call for German policymakers and industry leaders alike. The potential loss of thousands of jobs due to external market pressures underscores the urgency of finding a diplomatic solution to the U.S.-China trade dispute.