TORONTO — The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market is experiencing a significant downturn, with home sales plummeting 23.1% in March 2025 compared to the same month last year. According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), only 5,011 homes were sold last month, a stark contrast to the 6,519 homes sold in March 2024. This decline continues a trend observed in previous months, with sales also down 2.4% from February 2025 on a seasonally adjusted basis.
As the sales figures drop, new listings have surged, with 17,263 new properties hitting the market in March, marking an increase of 28.6% compared to the previous year. This influx of new listings has contributed to a total inventory rise of 9.5%, bringing the total number of homes available for sale in the region to 13,633.
TRREB's Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer noted that many potential buyers are adopting a "wait-and-see approach" amid ongoing economic uncertainties, particularly related to trade issues and the looming federal election campaign. "Buyers are likely hesitant to make commitments while the economic landscape remains unclear," Mercer explained.
The average selling price of homes in the GTA has also seen a decline, falling 2.5% year-over-year to $1,093,254. The composite benchmark price, which aims to represent the typical home, decreased by 3.8% compared to March 2024. These price adjustments reflect the shifting dynamics in the market, where increased inventory and reduced sales are putting downward pressure on prices.
In terms of property types, the downturn appears to be most pronounced in the detached home segment, which recorded 2,155 sales in March, down 24.9% from last year. Meanwhile, condo apartments saw 1,404 sales (down 23.5%), townhouses had 899 sales (down 23.2%), and semi-detached homes recorded 485 sales (down 15.9%).
Despite the current challenges, there are signs that homeownership is becoming more affordable. TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule highlighted that with lower home prices and borrowing costs, the market is becoming more accessible for buyers. "We expect further rate cuts this spring, which will enhance affordability and give buyers more negotiating power," Barry-Sproule stated.
Looking ahead, TRREB forecasts that the housing market will stabilize, with an anticipated 76,000 transactions by the end of the year. This projection is significantly lower than the peak of 120,000 transactions recorded in 2021. The board's outlook suggests that the market will remain "well-supplied," helping to keep home prices in check and ensuring that annual growth rates remain below inflation.
As the spring progresses, both TRREB officials and market analysts are keeping a close eye on tariff issues and their potential impact on the housing market. Mercer emphasized the importance of resolving trade uncertainties, stating, "If trade issues are solved or public policy choices help mitigate the impact of tariffs, home sales will likely increase. Buyers need to feel secure in their employment before committing to long-term mortgage payments."
In conclusion, while the Greater Toronto Area's housing market is currently facing significant challenges, including a sharp decline in sales and fluctuating prices, there are indications that the situation may improve as economic conditions stabilize. The combination of increased inventory and potential rate cuts could provide opportunities for buyers in the coming months, provided they feel confident in their financial situations.
