On Sunday, September 14, 2025, much of central and eastern North Dakota found itself under the threat of severe weather, as a potent low-pressure system swept moisture up from the south, setting the stage for a turbulent afternoon and evening. The National Weather Service wasted no time, issuing a tornado watch for a staggering 31 counties across central North Dakota, a move not seen in recent memory. This watch, in effect until 9 p.m., covered a broad swath of the state, including Barnes, Benson, Bottineau, Burleigh, Cavalier, Dickey, Eddy, Emmons, Foster, Grant, Griggs, Kidder, LaMoure, Logan, McHenry, McIntosh, McLean, Mercer, Morton, Nelson, Oliver, Pierce, Ramsey, Renville, Rolette, Sheridan, Sioux, Stutsman, Towner, Ward, and Wells counties, according to KXNET.
By early afternoon, the situation had escalated. At 2:15 p.m., a multi-vortex tornado was confirmed in north Emmons County. The National Weather Service responded swiftly, issuing tornado warnings for southeast Morton County, as well as Emmons and Sioux counties, with the warning set to last until 2:45 p.m. Just fifteen minutes later, at 2:30 p.m., reports confirmed a large and dangerous tornado in northwest Emmons County, barreling north toward southeast Morton County near the Missouri River. Notably, at that point, no tornado warning had been issued for the major population centers of Bismarck and Mandan, leaving residents there on edge but not under immediate threat.
As the afternoon wore on, the severe weather threat shifted. At 3:10 p.m., a tornado warning was issued for southwest Burleigh County near Lincoln, and by 3:40 p.m., another warning was posted for south-central Burleigh County, effective until 4:00 p.m. Meteorologists reported that a thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located just 6 miles northwest of Menoken and 7 miles northeast of Bismarck. Once again, Bismarck and Mandan were spared from direct warnings, but the proximity of the storms underscored the volatility of the atmosphere.
The source of all this chaos? According to KVLY, a robust low-pressure system was dragging warm, moist air from the south into the region, creating significant instability. This atmospheric setup meant that storms were not just possible—they were likely. The risk of severe storms, including the chance for isolated tornadoes, was greatest in the Devils Lake Basin and the James River Valley, both of which found themselves under a tornado watch until 9 p.m.
But tornadoes weren’t the only concern. Meteorologists warned that even storms that didn’t spawn twisters could still pack a punch, with the potential for large hail up to 1.25 inches in diameter and damaging winds reaching up to 70 mph. The risk was particularly acute in eastern North Dakota, where the Level 2 (Slight) Risk area covered the James River Valley and Devils Lake Basin, while the Level 1 (Marginal) Risk extended into the Red River Valley and parts of Lakes Country.
For residents and travelers, the advice was clear: have a severe weather plan in place and keep a close eye on weather alerts. Discrete storm cells were expected to begin forming around 4 p.m. in northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota, marching northward through the afternoon and evening. By 8 to 10 p.m., these storms were forecasted to reach the Devils Lake Basin before lifting into Canada by 11 p.m. After that, the severe threat was expected to wane, though a few lingering thundershowers might still rumble through overnight.
Rainfall from Sunday evening’s storms was projected to be significant in some areas. KVLY reported that totals could reach about 0.5 inches, with an additional 0.1 to 0.3 inches possible from overnight thundershowers. As the storms moved out, the weather was expected to calm, with any remaining showers dissipating before the Monday morning commute.
Looking ahead, the forecast called for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to return to eastern North Dakota on Monday, September 15, moving northeast throughout the day into the northern Valley by mid-evening. Rain totals were expected to range from 0.25 to 0.5 inches in parts of the region. Despite the unsettled weather, skies would be partly cloudy, with strong southerly breezes pushing afternoon temperatures into the low 80s—unseasonably warm for mid-September.
The brief taste of summer was set to continue into Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies and highs again in the low 80s. However, a weak frontal boundary was forecasted to arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing renewed chances for scattered showers and possibly a rumble of thunder. Cooler air would follow, dropping Wednesday’s highs to the low 70s, much closer to average for this time of year.
As the week progressed, the weather pattern was expected to remain unsettled. Thursday and Friday would likely see a few isolated showers, with overcast skies and temperatures ranging from the 50s in the morning to the upper 60s by afternoon. By the weekend, models suggested a continued chance of rain, but also the prospect of more seasonable temperatures as astronomical summer drew to a close.
For those looking ahead to the first week of fall, the news was a bit brighter. Forecasts called for morning lows in the 50s and afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 70s, a few degrees above normal for late September. Skies were expected to be mostly clear and sunny, offering a welcome respite from the week’s earlier volatility.
Throughout the severe weather episode, authorities and meteorologists emphasized the importance of preparedness. As KXNET reported, “A tornado warning has been issued for south-central Burleigh County in effect until 4:00 p.m. A thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado is 6 miles northwest of Menoken, or 7 miles northeast of Bismarck—no warning issued for Bismarck or Mandan.” This kind of real-time information proved crucial for residents navigating a rapidly changing situation.
In the end, while the threat of tornadoes and severe storms loomed large over North Dakota on September 14, the region’s readiness and the timely dissemination of weather alerts helped keep communities informed and as safe as possible. As the state transitions from summer to fall, the recent bout of severe weather serves as a reminder that the Plains can never be taken for granted—especially when the skies darken and the wind begins to howl.
