On March 14, 2025, Estadio Cuauhtémoc will host a pivotal clash as Club Puebla faces Deportivo Toluca for jornada 12 of the Clausura 2025 Liga BBVA MX. The match highlights two teams positioned at opposite ends of the spectrum: Toluca, currently fourth on the table, is vying to maintain its chase for playoff spots, whereas Puebla sits precariously at the bottom, desperately needing points to escape the relegation zone.
Deportivo Toluca enters the match buoyed by significant momentum, having thrashed Necaxa 5-2, showcasing their offensive prowess. For Toluca, this victory reflects their dominant form, marking their sixth win out of eleven matches, bringing them to 21 points, well within direct qualification range for the Liguilla.
Meanwhile, Puebla is grappling with challenges, coming off a disheartening 3-1 defeat to Pumas UNAM, which extended their winless streak and highlighted the struggles of the team as they continue to adjust to coach Pablo Guede's strategies. With only two victories to their name, they languish at 16th on the table with just eight points.
Expected lineups for the match feature Miguel Jiménez as goalkeeper for Puebla, flanked by defenders Gularte, Fedorco, Orona, and Ferrareis. The midfield will see Moyano, González Díaz, Angulo, and Waller, with attacking duties handled by Quiñones and Marín. For Toluca, Pau López will start as goalkeeper, backed up by Briseño, Méndez, Pereira, and Violante. Their midfield will include Marcel Ruiz, Jesús Angulo, and Héctor Herrera, along with forwards Alexis Vega, Paulinho, and Robert Morales.
Analysts have placed the odds favoring Toluca with an 81% chance of victory, compared to Puebla's mere 15% and only 4% for a draw. Given Toluca's offensive capabilities, marked by recent performances, they are expected to assert early control of the match. Toluca's attackers, particularly Vega and Paulinho, aim to exploit Puebla's shaky defense, which has shown vulnerability throughout the campaign.
Puebla’s chances hinge on their ability to withstand pressure defensively and execute effective counterattacks led by their key players Quiñones and Marín, both of whom possess the potential to lead revitalization efforts.
Betting insights corroborate the overwhelming expectation of Toluca's dominance, with wagers indicating - Toluca win at odds of 1.68, Puebla win at 4.75, and the draw at 4.30. These figures underline the pessimism surrounding Puebla's performance, which has been fraught with difficulties, especially following their recent form.
(Toluca coach) Antonio “Turco” Mohamed is eager for his squad to capitalize on their current run, aiming to solidify their position among the top contenders. Winning this match could allow them to leapfrog to third place, narrowing the distance to league leaders.
The ramifications of this match extend beyond mere points. For Puebla, it is not just about climbing the table but also about restoring their identity and connection with fans who have witnessed consistent underperformance. Captain Emanuel Gularte expressed remorse over the team's lack of results, stating, "We want to change our present; we will do everything possible to earn the trust of our fans. We acknowledge our problems but remain committed to reversing our fortunes.”
Despite having significant experience within their ranks, including the talents of Quiñones and Marín, Puebla has struggled to create any substantial chemistry or success on the field. Pressure is mounting on coach Guede, who has faced criticism amid disappointing results.
The upcoming contest promises to be high stakes for both sides. While Toluca looks to bolster their top-four status, Puebla seeks redemption and the possibility of reinvigorated hope for their season.
This week, channels like TV Azteca and platforms such as Azteca Deportes will live-stream the encounter, allowing fans to catch every moment as these teams collide.
The kickoff is set for 21:05 hours (Mexico Central Time) on March 14, 2025. Fans will be eager to see if Puebla can rise to the occasion or if Toluca will assert their positioning with another emphatic victory.