On December 29, the 70th Tokyo Daishōten G1 race will take place at Ohi Racecourse, featuring some of the year's top thoroughbreds on the dirt track stretching 2000 meters. This race serves as both the culmination of the year for dirt racing and an opportunity for horses to solidify their legacies.
One of the prominent horses partaking is Forever Young, whose performance has garnered significant attention. Notably, Forever Young earned third place at both the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders' Cup Classic, showcasing its talent on the international stage. This adaptability to various race conditions positions Forever Young as the horse to beat, especially with its triumph at the Japan Dirt Classic also on the same turf.
Forecasting the race, comedian and veteran horse racing analyst, Koshi from the duo Shimofuri Myojo, expressed anticipation for the competitive lineup. On his YouTube channel, he declared, "It’s going to be exciting with the lineup this year, mainly focusing on Forever Young." Koshi places his bets on the five-year-old horse Wilson Tesoro, highlighting its strong performances and adaptability across varying racing styles, affirming, "This horse possesses everything needed to take down Forever Young."
The event's history adds depth to its prestige. Since its elevation to G1 status, the Tokyo Daishōten has drawn both local and international competitors, with horses from the Japan Racing Association (JRA) dominating the field. Not one local horse has won since 2005, indicating the firm grip JRA horses have on the title.
Over the past decade, JRA horses claim victory rampant, with notable trends indicating top favorites frequently landing within the winner's circle. Data reveals, "Basic outcomes favor betting on 1-3 favorites; they have dominated the past decade's standings." This year, competition heats up with formidable entries backed by strong international credentials.
Of those, Crown Pride stands out as the dark horse. Known for its sporadic brilliance, it remains to be seen how it will adapt this season. Despite setbacks, it recently demonstrated its capabilities at the Champions Cup, where it faced fewer obstacles directly. This mix of hurdles and promise makes Crown Pride one to watch closely.
When considering race day placements, the starting position may impact outcomes this year. Trends show external gates have previously yielded mixed results, presenting possibilities for more agile entries to capitalize on their starting positions. Historically, horses starting from inside gates have struggled, leading many analysts to place their hopes on drawn routes.
Koshi placed betting emphasis on exact trifecta combinations, strategically selected based on recent performances of the primary contenders adding to the suspense of the annual contest. His bets on direct placements—specifically highlighting Wilson Tesoro and Crown Pride—indicate he believes interactions will play a significant role on race day.
The blend of these elements forms the rich narrative surrounding the Tokyo Daishōten. Participants like Forever Young, leading the way as the horse of the hour, alongside competitors such as Wilson Tesoro and Crown Pride, etch their marks within this celebrated event, expertly analyzed by Koshi ensures their strategies remain front and center.
With expectations high and the stakes even higher, the Tokyo Daishōten promises to be nothing short of thrilling.
