In the ongoing global quest to cut carbon emissions and address climate change, a powerful shift is taking place in both the construction and carbon removal sectors. On August 26, 2025, two key developments came to light: the growing impact of cross laminated timber (CLT) in displacing traditional building materials, and the innovative approach of ocean-based carbon removal championed by Captura. Together, these stories illustrate how technological innovation and policy can reshape the future of heavy industry and climate action.
Cross laminated timber has often been hailed as a fast, affordable solution to housing shortages, but its influence stretches far beyond individual buildings. According to a detailed analysis published by Michael Barnard in CleanTechnica, every cubic meter of CLT that replaces concrete in construction not only reduces the carbon locked into buildings but also directly cuts global demand for cement and steel. These are two of the most carbon-intensive industries on the planet, and the ripple effect of widespread CLT adoption could be transformative.
Historically, projections for cement and steel demand have assumed nearly linear growth, closely tied to global GDP and urbanization. These models expected mid-century peaks with flat demand for decades afterward. But Barnard’s assessment paints a different picture. He argues that the Chinese infrastructure boom that fueled soaring demand in recent decades has already peaked, and advanced economies are now shifting focus from expansion to maintenance. Efficiency gains in construction, the rise of lightweight composites, and smarter design are all accelerating the move away from traditional materials.
“What looks like a small shift in construction methods at the project level becomes a driver of global demand curves for both cement and steel,” Barnard wrote in CleanTechnica. He contends that, taken together, these factors mean global demand for both cement and steel will peak earlier, flatten more quickly, and decline gradually for the rest of the century.
Cement is the clearest example of this trend. In mid-rise residential and some commercial sectors, CLT is already taking the place of concrete slabs and cores. Building codes are evolving to permit taller timber structures, and procurement policies increasingly recognize the importance of embodied carbon. Supplementary cementitious materials are being blended into mixes worldwide, lowering the amount of clinker—the most carbon-intensive component—in every cubic meter of concrete. Barnard’s projection curves show cement demand peaking in the 2020s, flattening in the 2030s, and then declining to about one third of today’s levels by 2100.
This outlook is not just a theoretical exercise. The World Cement Association (WCA) has issued a long-term forecast echoing these conclusions, predicting that global cement demand, especially for clinker, will peak well before mid-century and then decline significantly. Their white paper suggests demand could fall from around 4.2 billion tons in 2020 to about 3.0 billion tons by 2050. By mid-century, cement demand may be just half of today’s level, driven by slower growth in China, expanded use of substitutes, improved design efficiencies, and the rise of low-carbon alternatives. Barnard notes, “That outlook aligns closely with my modeling. Where most forecasts expect continual growth, WCA sees a future reshaped by material substitution and efficiency, exactly what mass timber brings to the table.”
Steel, meanwhile, is closely tied to cement because so much of it is used as rebar and structural frameworks for concrete buildings. As concrete use declines, so does the need for rebar. Barnard’s projections show global steel demand bending downward in parallel with cement. This does not mean steel will vanish—there will still be significant demand for infrastructure, vehicles, and machinery—but the rebar segment will shrink steadily.
Here’s where the opportunity arises: a flatter and declining steel demand curve makes it possible for electric arc furnaces powered by clean electricity to dominate global production. This transition depends on the availability of scrap steel, but with lower total demand, scrap flows could be sufficient to cover a larger share of production. In effect, CLT substitution not only reduces emissions directly but also makes the steel industry’s decarbonization challenge more manageable by reducing volumes and aligning with recycling-based pathways.
To accelerate this transition, Barnard recommends that policymakers prioritize timber in buildings where it matches or exceeds the performance of concrete and steel. He argues that codes and financing should favor low embodied carbon materials, and procurement should recognize the biogenic carbon stored in timber, which locks away carbon for decades. “Embodied carbon caps in building codes can nudge developers and designers toward materials that score better on life cycle analysis,” he explains. These are practical steps, not radical ones, but they could have a profound impact.
However, the road is not without risks. If building codes evolve too slowly, substitution will lag. Insurance markets might resist, and incumbent industries will likely defend their positions. Volatility in lumber supply and land management controversies could also undermine the case for mass timber if not addressed responsibly. But the enablers are strong: CLT costs are dropping as scale increases, government procurement can lead by example, investors are focusing on embodied carbon as part of ESG mandates, and export markets in the United States and Europe are opening rapidly to mass timber solutions.
“The conclusion is that CLT is one of the sharpest knives we have to cut into global cement and steel demand, reducing the challenges of dealing with emissions from those hard-to-abate sectors,” Barnard asserts. It’s not the only tool, but it’s a powerful one that compounds its impact over decades.
While the construction sector is reimagining its materials, the fight against climate change is also moving to the oceans. On the same day as Barnard’s analysis, an interview with Steve Oldham, CEO of Captura, was published, highlighting the company’s pioneering approach to ocean-based carbon removal. Captura combines electrodialysis and gas extraction technologies with the ocean’s natural capacity to absorb CO2, aiming to enable large-scale, low-cost carbon removal.
Oldham brings a unique perspective, having previously worked in space and robotics technologies. He reflects on how this experience is now being applied to green industries, stating, “We’re not just focused on today’s emissions. Climate change is a legacy problem, and we need solutions that can address the carbon already in the atmosphere.” Captura’s technology seeks to harness the vast potential of the oceans to remove and store carbon, offering a complementary approach to land-based solutions like CLT.
Together, these developments signal a new era in climate action—one where innovation in both materials and carbon removal technologies can help bend the emissions curve downward. By rethinking what we build with and how we remove carbon from the atmosphere, society may finally have the tools to tackle the seemingly insurmountable challenge of decarbonizing heavy industry and achieving net zero goals.
It’s clear that the choices made today—in construction codes, procurement policies, and technology investments—will shape the long-term trajectory of global emissions. The future may still be daunting, but with sharp new tools like CLT and ocean-based carbon removal, it’s also looking more achievable than ever.
