In a dramatic turn of events, Teal independent Zoe Daniel declared an early victory in retaining her Melbourne seat of Goldstein on Saturday evening, May 3, 2025. The jubilant moment saw Daniel throwing punches into the air and performing a jig on stage as the song "Titanium" by David Guetta played in the background. She proclaimed, "Hope wins" to her supporters, basking in what she believed to be an extraordinary triumph.
However, just three days later, the electoral landscape shifted significantly. By Wednesday, May 7, 2025, Daniel appeared to have lost her seat to Liberal challenger Tim Wilson. According to reports from the ABC, Wilson was ahead by 684 votes, with a clear trend favoring him in the postal votes. 7NEWS also projected Wilson to take the seat with a tally of 51,079 votes compared to Daniel's 50,395 votes, with more than 80 percent of the vote counted.
Wilson's victory, if confirmed, would mark a significant milestone as he would be the first Liberal to reclaim a Teal-held seat after a wave of independent victories in traditionally Liberal strongholds during the 2022 election.
The political drama did not end there. On Friday, May 9, 2025, Daniel refused to concede her seat despite Wilson's claims of victory earlier in the week. She stated, "I understand everyone's desire to rule a line under the election result in Goldstein. I would also prefer it was resolved. However, there are still up to 10,000 votes to count, including postals, absentee, and pre-poll declaration votes." This assertion underscored the uncertainty still surrounding the election outcome, as only a little more than 87 percent of the votes had been counted.
Wilson announced his victory during a triumphant speech in Brighton, stating, "I am genuinely very proud to say that we are pleased to accept that we have won the seat of Goldstein back for the Liberal Party." His announcement came amidst a broader electoral picture where several seats remained too close to call, including the races for Kooyong and Bradfield.
In Kooyong, incumbent Teal independent Monique Ryan faced a tough challenge from Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer, with only about 700 votes separating them as the counting continued. The seat of Bradfield in Sydney was equally competitive, with Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian barely ahead of Teal independent Nicolette Boele, separated by just 250 votes. As of the latest updates, both seats were still considered on a knife's edge.
Employment Minister Murray Watt and journalist Joe Hildebrand discussed the election results during an appearance on Sunrise, where they addressed the complexities of declaring victory in such close races. Watt noted, "It’s always a bit of a judgment call, Nat. I guess politics is all about timing, isn’t it? You can get these judgment calls wrong."
Hildebrand added, "Every party will have their scrutineers watching where every ballot goes like a hawk." He referred to the unusual circumstances in Melbourne where a counting error had required the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) to revisit the counting of first preferences.
As the election results continued to unfold, attention turned to other key battlegrounds across the country. Nine seats remained too close to call as of May 9, 2025, with significant races in Bean (ACT), Longman (Queensland), Bullwinkel (Western Australia), and several seats in Victoria, including Bendigo, Monash, and Flinders.
In the seat of Bean, incumbent Labor MP David Smith was leading against independent candidate Jessie Price, who has been closing in on his lead as Liberal preferences were redistributed. Meanwhile, in Longman, incumbent Liberal MP Terry Young was narrowly leading against Labor candidate Rhiannyn Douglas, with only 200 votes separating them.
The seat of Bendigo, traditionally a Labor stronghold, saw incumbent MP Lisa Chesters leading against Nationals candidate Andrew Lethlean by just over 2,000 votes. In Flinders, incumbent Liberal MP Zoe McKenzie was looking to retain her seat against Labor's Sarah Race and independent Ben Smith, while in Monash, Liberal candidate Mary Aldred was leading with a primary vote of 32.29 percent.
Sky News Chief Election Analyst Tom Connell provided insights into the projections, stating that the Liberal Party had secured victories in the seats of Flinders and Monash, which would bring the Coalition's total to 42 seats in the lower house. Connell noted, "There’s no longer a realistic chance the Teal challengers could win the seats," emphasizing the challenges faced by opposition candidates in these tight races.
As the counting continues and the final results are tallied, the political landscape in Australia remains fluid and unpredictable. With several key seats still in play, the outcome of this election could reshape the balance of power in the federal parliament.
In the days ahead, all eyes will be on the remaining votes as supporters and candidates alike await the final verdict on this contentious election.
