As Poland gears up for its parliamentary elections, a recent poll conducted by Opinia24 reveals a tightly contested race among the major political parties. If elections were held this Sunday, April 20, 2025, the opposition party Koalicja Obywatelska (KO) would receive 30% of the vote, while the ruling Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) would closely follow with 28%. This polling data indicates a significant shift in voter sentiment as the country approaches the election date.
In the latest survey for Radio Zet, the third position is held by the far-right Konfederacja, which would garner 17% of the votes. Meanwhile, the coalition known as Trzecia Droga, formed by the parties Polska 2050 and PSL, is projected to receive 8%. The left-wing Nowa Lewica is expected to secure 7%, and the party Razem is polling at 4%, which is their best result since ending their collaboration with Nowa Lewica.
The survey, which sampled 1,000 Polish citizens aged 18 and older from April 2 to April 6, 2025, also found that 1% of respondents would vote for another party, while 5% were undecided. This indicates a growing political engagement among voters, with an impressive 84% expressing their intention to participate in the upcoming elections.
The results show a notable decline for KO, which previously held 32% in January, while PiS also saw a slight decrease from 29%. The changes reflect the dynamic nature of Polish politics, where voter preferences can shift rapidly in response to current events and party performances.
Delving deeper into the demographics, the survey highlights that support for KO is particularly strong among women, with 34% indicating they would vote for the party. In contrast, PiS appeals more to men, with 28% favoring them, and 23% supporting Konfederacja. Among older voters, KO leads with 39% support among those aged 60 and over, while PiS follows closely with 35%.
Younger voters, particularly those aged 25 to 39, show a preference for Konfederacja, which captures 32% of this demographic. This trend suggests a generational divide in political preferences that could significantly impact the election outcomes.
Education also plays a crucial role in shaping voter preferences. The poll indicates that 41% of individuals with higher education would vote for KO, whereas PiS finds its strongest support among those with secondary vocational (37%) and basic education (35%). This correlation between education level and party support underscores the importance of addressing the concerns and aspirations of different voter segments.
The polling results reveal a competitive landscape, with KO and PiS essentially neck and neck, a situation that could lead to a fragmented parliament and potential coalition negotiations post-election. With the Konfederacja emerging as a significant player, their role in the next parliament could be pivotal, especially if they manage to attract more disillusioned voters from the traditional parties.
As the election date approaches, political analysts are closely monitoring these trends, suggesting that the final voter turnout could exceed 80%. This high level of engagement could be a game-changer, particularly for smaller parties like Razem, which, despite polling at 4%, could benefit from increased visibility and support in the final days leading up to the election.
Overall, the latest polling data reflects a rapidly evolving political landscape in Poland, with established parties facing challenges from both the left and right. The outcome of the elections will not only shape the future of Poland's governance but also set the tone for its socio-economic policies in the years to come.
