Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal has been the talk of the baseball world this October, and for good reason. After shutting down the Cleveland Guardians with a dazzling 7 2/3 innings and a career-high 14 strikeouts in Game 1 at Progressive Field, Skubal has become the center of swirling trade rumors that could shake up the entire Major League Baseball landscape. The left-hander, who finished the 2025 season with a sparkling 2.21 ERA and followed it up with a dominant 1.76 ERA in the postseason, is widely regarded as the best pitcher in baseball right now—sorry, Paul Skenes, you’ll have to wait your turn.
But here’s the million-dollar—or, more accurately, $400 million—question: will Skubal remain a Tiger, or is he set to become the most coveted trade target of the 2025-2026 offseason? The answer, as it stands, is as elusive as a Skubal slider.
There’s no denying the buzz. According to MLB insider Jon Heyman, there’s a staggering $250 million gap between what Skubal’s camp is seeking in a long-term deal and what the Tigers are willing to offer. Team president Scott Harris, when pressed about Skubal’s future during his postseason press conference, gave what many considered a non-answer, only fueling speculation that the Tigers might be forced to make a tough call. As Heyman reported, "There's a gap of 'close to $250 million' in contract negotiations between Tarik Skubal and the Tigers." With Skubal set to hit free agency after the 2026 season, Detroit faces the classic dilemma: ride out the ace’s final year of team control, or cash in now for a king’s ransom?
The Tigers’ position isn’t enviable. They don’t have to trade Skubal—he’s under control through 2026 via arbitration—but the writing on the wall is hard to ignore. Executives around the league, as reported by The Athletic’s Will Sammon, believe Detroit would demand two top-level starting pitchers and a position player prospect for even a single year of Skubal’s services. That’s a hefty price, but as Sammon points out, "trading Skubal after back-to-back Cy Young wins is unheard of." It’s the kind of move that could reshape a franchise for years to come—or haunt it, if Skubal continues his dominance elsewhere.
So, who’s picking up the phone? The New York Mets are the only team publicly known to have expressed interest so far, but you can bet every contender is at least kicking the tires. The Mets, under the stewardship of David Stearns, are known for valuing their farm system, making a trade for Skubal an expensive, if tantalizing, proposition. As one analyst noted, "The Mets would have to give up a significant haul—think two of their best young arms and a promising position player—to even get Detroit to the table." With other options on the market, such as Freddy Peralta, who might be more affordable, the Mets have some big decisions to make this winter.
But don’t count out the Cleveland Guardians, despite being division rivals with the Tigers. Cleveland boasts a surplus of young, controllable starting pitching—Joey Cantillo, fresh off an American League Rookie of the Month nod in September, and Parker Messick, who turned heads in August, are just two names who could headline a blockbuster package. There’s also Khal Stephen, the promising Double-A arm acquired in the Shane Bieber deal. For the Guardians, landing Skubal would not only bolster their rotation but also weaken a direct competitor in the AL Central. Still, the odds of Detroit dealing their ace within the division remain slim.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs are lurking as a dark horse. Fresh off their first playoff appearance in four years and eager to strengthen a rotation that already features the likes of Justin Steele and rookie sensation Cade Horton, the Cubs have both the need and the resources to make a splash. The Cubs’ front office is reportedly considering a package involving Imanaga, catching prospect Moises Ballesteros, and a first-round draft pick. With outfielder Kyle Tucker expected to depart in the offseason, Chicago could have the payroll flexibility to sign Skubal to the kind of contract Detroit seems unwilling to offer. If the Cubs pull off a deal, a Horton-Skubal one-two punch could make them instant favorites in the NL Central.
Of course, not everyone believes a trade is imminent. Analysts differ on the likelihood of a Skubal move this winter, with estimates ranging from a minuscule 0.25% to a more plausible 10%. As one expert put it, "I think the Tigers would be crazy to truly make Skubal available. They’re just not going to be better in 2026 without him, regardless of the return, unless you’re just banking on Skubal getting hurt." The Tigers, after all, are trying to compete now, and trading their ace could send the wrong message to both the clubhouse and the fanbase. But as history shows—think Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, or Corbin Burnes—superstar trades can happen when contract negotiations stall and free agency looms.
Comparisons to the Brewers’ trade of Corbin Burnes are inevitable, though insiders believe Skubal’s value is even higher. Milwaukee landed DL Hall, Joey Ortiz, and a competitive balance round A draft pick for Burnes, but Skubal, with his back-to-back Cy Young campaigns and postseason heroics, could command an even bigger haul. As one executive told The Athletic, "It’ll take something outrageous to pry Skubal away. Let teams make the crazy offers, but the Tigers should only bite if they get blown away."
Adding to the intrigue is the rich historical rivalry between the Cubs and Tigers, who have faced off in four World Series dating back to the early 1900s. The Cubs, who beat Detroit in 1907 and 1908 but lost in 1935 and 1945, would love nothing more than to tip the scales by acquiring the Tigers’ ace in the modern era. For Detroit, the prospect of losing Skubal for nothing if he leaves in free agency next year is a bitter pill to swallow, especially given the franchise’s struggles to reach the World Series since 2012.
With the offseason heating up and the rumor mill in overdrive, all eyes are on Detroit’s front office. Will they hold firm, betting on one more run with their ace, or will they cash in and retool for the future? For now, the only certainty is that Tarik Skubal’s name will dominate hot stove conversations all winter long. One thing’s for sure: wherever he ends up, Skubal’s next chapter promises to be must-see baseball.
