Marvel Studios' latest release, Thunderbolts - or The New Avengers as some prefer to call it - is on the brink of a significant box office milestone as it enters its second weekend in theaters. Set to cross the $100 million mark domestically on May 10, 2025, this film will become the fourth movie this year to achieve this milestone, joining the ranks of A Minecraft Movie, Captain America: Brave New World, and Sinners.
Directed by Jake Schreier, Thunderbolts features an unconventional team of antiheroes, including Yelena Belova, Bucky Barnes, Red Guardian, Ghost, Taskmaster, and John Walker. The film's plot revolves around these disillusioned characters who must confront their dark pasts while navigating a dangerous mission set by Valentina Allegra de Fontaine. The film has received a positive response from audiences, which is likely helping its box office performance.
Despite its promising trajectory, the film's production budget was reported to be $180 million (minus prints and advertising), indicating that it still has a long way to go to turn a profit for the studio. The cast brings back familiar faces from the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU), including Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, David Harbour, Wyatt Russell, Olga Kurylenko, Hannah John-Kamen, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus. Newcomers to the MCU include Lewis Pullman, Geraldine Viswanathan, Chris Bauer, and Wendell Edward Pierce.
However, the film has faced challenges at the box office. On its first Thursday, Thunderbolts recorded $4.2 million, marking the fourth-worst opening for a first Thursday in MCU history. This figure represented a slight drop of 1.3% from Wednesday's earnings, which had already seen a significant decline from Tuesday. Comparatively, other MCU films like Shang-Chi and Quantumania had stronger openings on their respective Thursdays, with earnings of $3.9 million and $3.8 million, respectively.
Despite these setbacks, there is a glimmer of hope for Thunderbolts. The movie is on track to cross the $100 million mark on Friday, May 9, 2025, which would be its eighth day in theaters, including preview screenings. This slow pace puts it alongside other MCU films like Eternals, which took nine days to reach the same milestone. In contrast, Captain America: Brave New World achieved the $100 million mark in just four days.
As the weekend approaches, analysts are closely watching the film's performance. If Thunderbolts can maintain a drop percentage of 50% or less in its second weekend, it would be considered a victory. However, anything above 60% could signal ongoing struggles. Current estimates suggest the film may bring in around $9 million on Friday, which would represent the fourth-worst Friday in MCU history, trailing behind Captain America: Brave New World, The Marvels, and Quantumania.
The overall domestic box office as of May 8, 2025, stood at approximately $95.4 million, with international earnings adding another $86.2 million, bringing the worldwide total to about $181.6 million. The film's opening weekend from May 2 to 4 generated $74.3 million, with daily earnings fluctuating throughout the week. The film saw a significant drop of 71.9% on Monday, followed by a recovery on Tuesday with a 49% increase, but then dipped again on Wednesday and Thursday.
Should Thunderbolts manage to pull through this weekend with a solid performance, it could potentially reach a total domestic box office of $130 million by Sunday, May 11, 2025. However, given its hefty budget of around $300 million, the film still faces an uphill battle to be deemed a financial success.
In the face of stiff competition, including upcoming releases like Final Destination: Bloodlines and Disney's live-action Lilo & Stitch, the next few weeks will be critical for Thunderbolts. If it can hold its ground and keep its drop percentage manageable, it might just find the audience it needs to turn things around.
As the Marvel Cinematic Universe continues to evolve, fans and critics alike are left wondering whether Thunderbolts will ultimately find its footing among Marvel's storied legacy of films. With a blend of returning favorites and new faces, the film has the potential to resonate with audiences, but only time will tell if it can overcome its rocky start.
