Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul are set to face off today, March 12, 2025, at 7:30 AM IST, in the fourth round of the Indian Wells Open, marking yet another thrilling chapter of their burgeoning rivalry. This clash is not just another match; it’s a rematch of last year’s semi-final at Indian Wells where Medvedev triumphed over Paul, winning the match after three grueling sets. Fans are eager to see if Paul, who has been making impressive strides, can avenge his previous loss to the two-time Indian Wells finalist.
The stakes are high for both athletes at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, with surfaces set to provide exciting play on hard courts. It’s noteworthy how both players have reached this stage with contrasting journeys—Medvedev asserted his dominance earlier this tournament with dominant wins, including his recent match where he faced little resistance due to his opponent’s illness, resulting in just two games being played. Meanwhile, Paul showcased his prowess with strong performances, defeating Cameron Norrie comfortably to reach this round.
Understanding their current forms is key to this matchup. Daniil Medvedev, ranked fifth, started the year strong but has had mixed results lately with notable successes at Indian Wells 2023 and 2024 where he reached the finals. His win-loss record so far this season stands at 18-7, with 10-5 at Indian Wells, making him the favorite as he vies for yet another title.
On the other hand, Tommy Paul has rapidly climbed to the top ten, currently ranked 10th, with his 2025 record showing promise at 11-5, reflective of his recent strong play. With only one victory against Medvedev from the four times they’ve met, Paul aims to make this match count. Their previous encounters had Medvedev winning three of them, but Paul’s recent win—a commanding 6-1, 6-4 victory—during their last meeting at the ATP Masters 1000 Rome gives him hope.
Looking at head-to-head statistics, Medvedev has dominated their matchups, yet Paul demonstrated remarkable improvement. They have faced each other four times: Medvedev leads with three wins to Paul’s one. Each match has revealed different facets of their gameplay, making today’s encounter highly anticipated. Notably, their last bout saw Paul putting Medvedev under significant pressure, making this match not just about statistics, but also about psychological warfare on the court.
The betting lines indicate confidence leaning slightly toward Medvedev, with odds showing him as favorite at -130. Paul’s odds are set at +106, reflecting the close competition expected. An interesting angle for bettors is the total games line set around 22.5, which speaks to the anticipated intensity of the match. Given both players' abilities to play long rallies and push each other, this figure seems reasonable.
Meanwhile, live streaming of the match will be accessible through the Sony Network for Indian viewers, Sky Sports Tennis for those in the UK, and Tennis Channel. This accessibility will surely bring more attention to what promises to be one of the standout matches of the tournament so far.
With both players having points to prove, especially Paul who aims to avenge last year’s heartbreaking loss, we can expect high volatility and intensity. Paul’s blend of powerful serves and sharp net plays could challenge Medvedev if this match extends beyond the initial stages.
Prediction-wise, opinions are split. While Medvedev might formally be the favored player due to his history and past performances at Indian Wells, it would be remiss to underestimate Paul’s recent form and newfound confidence. The match can reasonably be expected to go the distance, with Medvedev prevailing likely due to his experience and adaptability.
Paul, riding on home crowd support, will be eager to disrupt Medvedev’s rhythm. With the audience’s energy likely to impact the match, the atmosphere at Indian Wells is sure to be electric. Overall, this clash is set to be more than just another match—it’s a test of skill, strategy, and perhaps most critically, resilience under pressure.
Expect fireworks as Daniil Medvedev takes on Tommy Paul—a match not to miss!