In a remarkable turn of events, Thailand's exports soared by 17.8% in March 2025, reaching a record-breaking value of $29.5 billion, the highest in the nation’s history. This impressive growth is part of a broader trend, with the first quarter of 2025 witnessing an overall expansion of 15.2%, totaling $81.5 billion in exports. Minister of Commerce, Phichai Naripthaphan, announced these figures, highlighting the consistent monthly growth rates of 13.6% in January, 14% in February, and the significant 17.8% in March.
Phichai attributed the success to a variety of factors, including increased production and exports ahead of the anticipated U.S. tariffs, as well as a robust demand for electronic goods, which have contributed significantly to the exports. "The growth is not only happening in the U.S. market but is also evident in other markets," he stated, reflecting on the collaborative efforts between the government, the Ministry of Commerce, and the private sector.
In the wake of these developments, Phichai expressed optimism about the continued momentum for Thai exports throughout the remainder of 2025. He noted that since the appointment of Prime Minister Paethongtarn Shinawatra in October 2024, Thailand's exports have been growing at an average rate of 12.9%, a level not seen in the past decade. This growth reflects a clear recovery in the Thai economy.
However, challenges loom on the horizon. Experts from the Siam Commercial Bank Economic Intelligence Center (SCB EIC) have warned that while the first half of 2025 appears promising, the latter half may face significant headwinds due to the ongoing trade war and rising protectionism. SCB EIC projects that overall exports could contract by 0.4% for the year, a stark contrast to earlier forecasts of a 1.6% growth.
The anticipated slowdown is attributed to several factors, including the impact of reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S. and the potential for a global recession. The U.S. has increased tariffs on various goods, which could disproportionately affect Thailand, given that the U.S. accounts for 18.3% of Thai exports, a significant increase from 12.7% in 2019.
In March, exports to the United States surged by 34.3%, driven primarily by electronics, including computers and components, which saw growth rates of 107.2% and 44.4%, respectively. Exports to China also performed well, increasing by 22.2%, bolstered by strong demand for intermediate and capital goods.
Despite the positive figures, certain sectors are showing signs of strain. Agricultural exports have seen a slight decline of 0.5% in March, continuing a trend of contraction over the past three months. Major agricultural products, such as rubber and fresh fruits, have struggled, while processed foods have also faced challenges.
The SCB EIC has highlighted that the growth in exports has been significantly supported by the booming electronics sector. Exports of electronic goods grew by 80.2%, with components and integrated circuits also showing strong performance. However, the center cautioned that the favorable conditions might not last, as the momentum from increased production and exports ahead of U.S. tariffs is likely to diminish.
Furthermore, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disputes are expected to create additional challenges for Thai exporters. Phichai emphasized that the Ministry of Commerce is preparing measures to mitigate these impacts, including stricter trade standards and ongoing negotiations for free trade agreements with partners such as the EU and South Korea.
"We are fully prepared to navigate the complexities of the current trade landscape," Phichai affirmed. He also stressed the importance of cooperation between the government and the private sector to adapt to the changing global market.
As Thailand looks to bolster its export capabilities, the government is focusing on increasing its market share in the U.S. and other key markets. Phichai noted that Thailand currently holds about a 20% share of the U.S. market for certain products, particularly rubber gloves and automotive parts, and sees opportunities to expand further due to the challenges faced by competitors like China.
In light of these developments, the Thai government is urging businesses to seize the moment and increase their exports to mitigate potential losses from U.S. tariffs. Phichai reassured stakeholders that the ongoing dialogues with U.S. trade representatives are constructive, and he remains optimistic about reaching favorable agreements.
In conclusion, while the immediate outlook for Thai exports is bright, with record growth figures for March, the potential for increased trade barriers and global economic uncertainties casts a shadow over the sustainability of this growth. The Thai government and businesses alike must remain agile and responsive to the rapidly changing trade environment to secure and enhance their positions in the global market.
