Thailand's economy is poised for transformation as it grapples with significant demographic changes and rising sectors. According to the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), the number of Japanese restaurants across the country has surged, reflecting the increasing inclination of Thai consumers toward authentic culinary experiences. This trend, along with the impending challenges posed by declining birth rates, paints a complex picture for Thailand’s future economic growth.
On January 8, 2024, JETRO reported the findings of its annual survey of Japanese restaurants, highlighting the growing popularity of this dining genre. The total number of such establishments has reached 5,916, up 165 restaurants or 2.9% from the previous year. Growth is noted across major areas, with Bangkok, surrounding provinces, and even rural locations reporting increases (2.7% growth in Bangkok and its vicinity, 3.1% elsewhere).
Among various types of Japanese restaurants, there is evident competition and shifting consumer preferences. Traditional Japanese restaurants currently lead with 1,439 locations, surpassing the declining sushi-focused venues, which reported a drop of 6.8%, reducing their count to 1,279. Interviews conducted with industry insiders indicated this shift is partially driven by the availability of high-quality, more affordable sushi, changing consumer expectations toward traditional tastes and contemporary dining experiences.
Interestingly, it is establishments with average meal prices above 1,000 baht per head seeing the most remarkable growth rate of 13.9%. Such establishments are positioning themselves to cater to the increasing demand from both locals and international tourists eager for authentic experiences, which is likely to bolster Thailand's role as a culinary destination.
Regional growth is also significant. For example, Chiang Mai saw its count of Japanese restaurants grow by 23, reaching 280, Nakhon Pathom added 15 to reach 104, and Phuket welcomed 11 more, totaling 142. The trend points toward an increasing appetite for Japanese cuisine, reflecting broader acceptance and integration of Japanese culinary culture within Thailand.
Meanwhile, demographic shifts concerning Thailand's birth rate pose serious questions about future economic dynamics. Recent forecasts from the Kasikorn Research Center suggest the population may decline sharply from 66 million today to 33 million within the next century if current trends continue, with 2024 marking the fourth consecutive year of newborn counts falling below 500,000. This contrasts starkly with the number of deaths, which has reportedly exceeded 570,000. Factors contributing to this phenomenon include both social preferences for smaller families and rising incidences of infertility.
Thailand is recognized for its specialization and acceptance of infertility treatments, creating opportunities for the burgeoning fertility tourism market. With global fertility rates declining—predicted by the UN to drop from 4.8 births per woman to just 2.2 by 2026—the demand for fertility services is on the rise. Thailand stands out as a favored destination for foreign patients, particularly from neighboring countries like China and India, who seek advanced reproductive treatments.
The total market segment for fertility tourism is expected to reach 6.3 billion baht by 2024, growing at about 6.2% annually. This uptick is expected as more Thai couples face infertility challenges, creating sustainable demand for innovative treatments, particularly with the increase of ICSI (Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection), which boasts high success rates compared to traditional methods.
Despite expected demographic challenges, the synergy between health services and cultural gastronomy places Thailand on the cusp of new economic opportunities. Jun Kuroda, President of JETRO Bangkok, emphasizes the need to fulfill consumer demand for authentic experiences. "The important aim to expand the export of Japanese food products to Thailand is to fulfill consumer demand for authentic Japanese cuisine," he said, highlighting how culinary experiences can bridge cultural gaps and drive economic growth.
Overall, as Thailand continues to cater to both local and international tastes—culinary preferences and health services alike—the economy may navigate through current challenges and emerge with new strengths. The intersection of gastronomy and health services provides dual pathways for economic development amid changing demographic landscapes.