In a critical assessment of Thailand's current economic and governance challenges, prominent academic Pisit Leeahtam has emphasized the urgent need for effective leadership to navigate the country through turbulent times. He argues that without a capable "captain" at the helm, Thailand risks being overwhelmed by the waves of economic decline and structural issues.
Pisit highlighted that the decline in public trust and adherence to the rule of law is a significant factor contributing to the ongoing economic downturn. The World Bank has projected a mere 1.6% growth for Thailand this year, the lowest in the East Asia and Pacific region. He pointed out that Thailand has squandered its resources, leading to an ever-increasing government debt burden, alongside rising household debts and diminishing natural resources, which have deterred tourists.
"If Thailand is to survive, we must collectively find ways to rejuvenate our economy and governance," Pisit stated. He underscored that external risks, coupled with structural problems, necessitate a unified effort to address these challenges. According to him, the most pressing issue is the structural integrity of the system, particularly concerning the diminishing population, which has led to a shrinking labor force. "Currently, there are more deaths than births, which impacts the labor market significantly," he explained.
Pisit also raised concerns about the quality of the workforce, questioning whether Thailand is producing skilled labor that meets current demands. He attributed this issue to deficiencies in education and technology, even as he acknowledged the resilience and adaptability of the Thai people.
Another critical point Pisit made was the importance of the rule of law in fostering national development. He cited Singapore as a successful model that maintains strong adherence to legal frameworks, which has attracted significant investment. "We are increasingly losing our grip on the rule of law, which is essential for development," he remarked, referencing recent scandals involving government accountability, such as the collapse of the Office of the Auditor General building.
Pisit expressed that corruption distorts the rule of law, but he hesitated to label it as such, suggesting that maintaining the rule of law is vital to prevent such issues. He also addressed environmental concerns, advocating for the development of green technology in Thailand and emphasizing the need for education to support this shift.
He likened Thailand’s current situation to a small boat in a vast ocean, facing immense storms. "We need a skilled captain to ensure this boat doesn’t capsize," he said. The captain, in this metaphor, represents leaders who can effectively direct the country through its challenges. Pisit stressed that the captain must not only be competent but also trustworthy, as the crew must follow their lead.
In terms of economic strategy, Pisit argued that Thailand has relied heavily on Japan for the past 30-40 years but must now adapt to emerging trends like electric vehicles and green technology. He stated, "We need to change our approach to remain competitive globally, especially as other nations advance rapidly in these areas."
Meanwhile, Setthaput Suthiwartnarueput, the Governor of the Bank of Thailand, echoed similar sentiments, stating that despite the challenges, Thailand possesses opportunities for economic growth through new structural frameworks. He highlighted the potential for Thailand to enhance its economy through Free Trade Agreements (FTA) and the burgeoning sectors of hospitality and wellness tourism.
Setthaput noted that while Thailand has the potential to develop a robust economy, the focus must be on elevating the quality of growth rather than merely expanding quantitatively. He pointed out that the country has a unique advantage in health and wellness tourism, catering to an aging population both domestically and internationally.
However, he cautioned that the pursuit of new economic ventures, such as the controversial Entertainment Complex project, must not compromise Thailand's global image. "The challenge is to ensure that tourism growth is sustainable and does not tarnish the country’s reputation," he said, emphasizing the need for transparency and good governance.
Setthaput warned that engaging in high-risk projects, particularly casinos, could lead to a negative perception of Thailand, potentially harming investor confidence. He stressed the importance of maintaining a positive image, especially as the country has recently faced scrutiny from credit rating agencies like Moody's, which downgraded Thailand’s outlook from stable to negative.
"If we pursue projects that do not add value, we risk undermining our competitiveness and credibility," he remarked. He also mentioned the need for Thailand to adapt to the changing global economic landscape, particularly in light of challenges posed by international tariffs and the influx of cheaper foreign goods.
In light of these challenges, Setthaput expressed gratitude for the government’s willingness to consider feedback from the Bank of Thailand regarding economic stimulus measures, such as the digital wallet initiative. He reiterated that any such projects must undergo thorough evaluation to ensure they are effective and beneficial in the current economic context.
As Thailand grapples with its economic future, both Pisit and Setthaput underscore the need for a collective effort to address the pressing issues at hand. They advocate for a proactive approach to governance and economic strategy, emphasizing that the time for complacency has passed. The call for a capable and trustworthy leadership resonates strongly, as the nation seeks to navigate through its current challenges and emerge stronger.
