Thailand's economic outlook for 2024 is being cautiously examined as government officials and economists project moderate growth amid various factors impacting the country. Prime Minister Phatongtharn Shinawatra recently discussed the government's plans to stimulate the economy, aiming for GDP growth between 3% and 3.5% during 2024. This ambitious target follows last year's disappointing growth rate of just 2.5%, which was considered one of the lowest in the region.
"We are focusing on accelerating government budget disbursement and supporting private investments," stated Prime Minister Shinawatra during discussions held with Deputy Prime Minister Pichai Chunhawan and other key economic officials, reported by local media on March 3, 2025. The government strategy includes measures to adjust the national budget, targeting significant investments to initiate projects and stimulate both public and private sectors.
Key initiatives outlined by the Prime Minister include expediting budget disbursements with over 100 billion baht available from state-owned enterprises and government funds still untapped. This measure is anticipated to boost economic growth through various channels, particularly investment and infrastructure development.
To tackle investment barriers, the government plans to simplify the ease of doing business, especially focusing on permits and licenses to draw foreign investments, particularly through the Board of Investment (BOI). These initiatives aim to increase private sector investment, which is expected to rebound from -1.6% growth to around 2.6% as reported.
The tourism sector, regarded as one of Thailand's main economic drivers, is projected to see substantial recovery with expectations of attracting up to 38 million international visitors, up from 35.5 million, following the easing of travel restrictions. The government aims to open new markets and streamline export procedures to boost this industry significantly.
Despite the positive outlook, Thailand's economy is not without its challenges. Economists have raised concerns about structural issues, including rising household debts, demographic shifts toward aging populations, and decreasing competitiveness. These challenges could hinder the government’s ambitious growth targets.
Pimnara Hirankajit, head of economics research at Bank of Ayudhya, highlighted during her presentation latest economic growth forecasts indicating projected GDP growth for 2024 to be around 2.7%, showing only slight improvement from the prior year's low. Hirankajit emphasized, "The focus on technology and innovation is key for sustainable economic growth." This indicates the necessity for Thailand to adapt to global market demands and embrace innovation within its economic frameworks.
Thailand's economy also faces significant external threats, particularly from the United States-China trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, which could contribute to sluggish export growth projected at only 2.7% for the year. Increased scrutiny from the US, as Thailand ranked 11th highest on its trade surplus, adds to concerns about potential trade restrictions harming exports.
Economists warn of additional risks from potential climate change impacts and domestic production competitiveness concerns. Without addressing these structural challenges, the government’s growth ambitions might fall short.
Conclusively, the Thai government is preparing to initiate larger dialogues with the private sector to finalize economic stimulus plans within the next two weeks. Investors are closely watching how effective these strategies will be, particularly following last year's performance. The Prime Minister's administration is focusing on maintaining momentum and clarity within economic policies to sustain growth.
The path forward for Thailand will hinge not solely on immediate recovery strategies but will also require adaptable, innovative solutions to mitigate long-term challenges and achieve its growth potential, ensuring the nation's economy thrives amid changing global circumstances.