Thailand's stock market experienced fluctuations on March 3, 2025, as analysts predicted the SET Index would oscillate between 1,190 and 1,210 points. Factors contributing to this cautious outlook include geopolitical tensions and unresolved negotiations between U.S. and Ukrainian leaders, which continued to impact investor sentiment.
According to Invest Securities, the market faced pressure from trade war concerns, primarily due to former president Donald Trump’s decision to impose additional tariffs. Effective March 4, these tariffs will affect goods imported from Canada and Mexico at 25% and are set to rise again for Chinese products by another 10%. Consequently, they anticipate the SET Index might support levels around 1,190-1,200 points, with resistance at about 1,225-1,230 points. The near-term outlook suggests potential recovery is possible, though considerable upside remains limited, likely capping at around 1,300 points.
Looking at macroeconomic indicators, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to show signs of easing inflation, trending down to approximately 2.5%. Analysts believe this could alleviate pressure on the Federal Reserve to adjust monetary policy significantly. Investors are also watching manufacturing and service PMIs from China, which are slowly improving. The Bank of Thailand's recent decision to lower interest rates to 2.00% has provided some surprises to the market, contributing to increased buying activity.
Preliminary earnings forecasts for the first quarter of 2025 suggest Thai corporate profits have started to recover from the worst period observed earlier last year. This improvement might attract more foreign investment as initiatives by the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) to bolster investor confidence begin to bear fruit. Strategies adopted by financial experts recommend selective buying, particularly among companies with low Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratios within leading sectors such as retail (BJC, CRC, CPALL, HMPRO), commercial banks (BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB), tourism (CENTEL, MINT), and healthcare (BDMS).
The analyst Weerawath Wirojphoka of FSS International Securities remarked, “Today’s Thailand stock market is likely to remain within the established ranges. Despite the U.S. PCE numbers coming in line with expectations, geopolitical strains from stalled talks between the U.S. president and Ukrainian leadership continue to suppress overall sentiment.”
Regionally, other Asian markets exhibited mixed movements today, establishing resistance at around 1,210 points and support at approximately 1,190 points.
On to environmental concerns, the Pollution Control Department has urged provinces to remain vigilant against PM 2.5 dust and heat spot monitoring. On the same day, the Chief of the Department, Phasakorn Boonyalak, highlighted current PM 2.5 levels across Thailand, indicating healthy conditions especially within Central and Southern regions as well as Bangkok. Conversely, several areas, particularly within the north and northeast, reported levels categorized as orange, raising health concerns, with Ubon Ratchathani registering dangerously high levels, reflecting red categorizations and necessitating aggressive observation.
Following data gathered on March 2, approximately 760 hotspots were reported, primarily located within national forestry and agricultural areas. The top five provinces facing severe heat spots include Tak with 154, Lampang with 119, Chaiyaphum with 50, Kalasin with 34, and Sa Kaeo with 34 detections. The document also notes heightened heat spots from neighboring countries such as Myanmar and Laos, contributing to rising particles per cubic meter across northern and northeastern Thailand.
The department also highlighted their vigilance against illegal burning activities, verifying deep enforcement strategies, including actual prosecutions of offenders. Since January 1 until March 2, only 27 cases against offenders have been filed, with those responsible being swiftly brought to trial.
Phasakorn remarked on the overall cooperative actions from various agencies to enforce guidelines adhering to government mandates against smoke-producing activities. Emphasizing collaboration, he remarked, “We are actively pursuing enforcement for offenders who engage with dangerous burning practices.”
Besides monitoring air quality, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation worked in partnership with military forces utilizing helicopters for firefighting measures throughout the northern region, especially within wildlife sanctuaries.
This cooperative initiative saw 11 flights deploying 33,000 liters of water to combat wildfires, leaps toward mitigating PM 2.5 hazards. Regular updates on air quality data will be disseminated via the department’s social media channels to keep the public informed. Ninety-two percent of the heat spots can be attributed to agricultural burning as farmers prepare land for upcoming crop cycles.
The overall direction of Thailand's stock market reflects intertwined economic conditions and political discussions. Investors are advised to navigate these turbulent waters with strategic stock selections and proactive investments as the nation strives to attain stabilization amid rising environmental concerns and shifting geopolitical climate.