Thailand is on track to maintain its position as the top exporter of agricultural products, particularly fruits, with expectations for exports to reach approximately $6.51 billion. This anticipated growth is driven by increasing demand for Thai fruits, particularly durian, which is gaining popularity among international consumers.
On March 13, 2025, Mr. Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, the Director-General of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), highlighted significant trends during the annual trade outlook report. He noted, "Demand for Thai fruits is soaring due to their quality, variety, and unique taste, with fruits accounting for 22.6% of Thailand's total agricultural exports. This positions us as the leading country in agricultural exports for 2025."
Among the top exported fruits, fresh durian commands the largest share with export volumes reaching 859,183 tons valued at $3.76 billion, which makes up 72.9% of the total fresh fruit exports. Key markets for Thai durians include China, which alone accounts for 97.4% of these exports, followed by Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia, and the United States.
Following durians, lychees, mangosteens, and coconuts are also key contributors to Thailand's fruit export portfolio, with significant revenues generated from these products. According to the TPSO, the export value of longan reached $571.2 million, with China comprising 73.1% of the market share.
Despite the impressive export figures, the Thai fruit industry faces mounting challenges. The increasing competition from neighboring countries like Vietnam and the Philippines is becoming evident, especially as these nations have started exporting their own durians to China. "Since 2003, we have officially exported durian to China, yet over the past three years, China has allowed imports from Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, complicate our market position," Poonpong elaborated.
The report stressed the importance of diversifying export markets to mitigate risks associated with dependence on China. Poonpong said, "We must explore new potential markets such as the USA, Germany, Netherlands, and the UK, where our market share remains underutilized. This is necessary to lessen the heavy reliance on China, as trade regulations have become increasingly stringent."
Simultaneously, the overall export downturn Thailand is experiencing has raised concerns among officials, particularly due to adverse climatic conditions affecting agricultural outputs. The recent drought has resulted in decreased yields for many fruits, impairing overall export volume and revenue.
The Ministry of Commerce is taking proactive steps to manage the situation. Mr. Pipat Narinphathanan, Minister of Commerce, stated, "We're committed to supporting local farmers and enhancing agricultural products. This includes emphasizing new export strategies and driving innovations for new markets, as well as creating added value through product processing."
The call for reinforcing dealings with trade partners, especially as trade wars and tariffs escalate globally, is significant. The Thai Chamber of Commerce recently reported on the potential economic impact from what they termed "Trump 2.0," anticipating about $56 million reductions in exports as retaliatory tariffs may hamper trade with regions like China, Mexico, and Canada. This could lead to decreases not only in direct exports but also ripple effects threatening GDP by up to 0.87%.
Mr. Thanawat Phonwichai, President of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, emphasized, "We need to monitor how these policy changes may provoke market reactions, and it is imperative to devise appropriate responses. Adjusting strategy to navigate these complex trade relations will be fundamental to revamping our export outlook."
To safeguard the nation's agricultural export status, the Ministry of Commerce is prioritizing measures such as establishing task forces to facilitate negotiations between exporters and foreign importers, alongside fostering collaborations for market penetration. This holistic approach aims to prevent the potential fallout from trade disputes and economic downturns, ensuring sustainable growth for Thailand’s agricultural output.
With the stakes so high, 2025 appears to be shaping up as pivotal for Thailand's agricultural exports. The looks to stabilize existing markets for staples like durian, malay apple, and longan, all pivotal to the nation's revenue. By being adaptive and responsive to market dynamics, the Thai fruit industry hopes to maintain its lead as the number one agricultural exporter.