As of March 21, 2025, the Thai baht has seen a slight dip, trading at approximately 33.80-33.82 baht per U.S. dollar during the morning hours, a marginal fall from the previous day's closing rate of 33.70 baht per dollar. According to N.S. Karnjana Chokpaisarnsilp, the executive in charge of the Securities Analysis Center of Thailand, this decline is reflective of a broader trend among Asian currencies, as well as fluctuations in global gold prices driven by profit-taking actions.
Market analysts attribute this depreciation of the baht to the continued strength of the U.S. dollar, which has benefitted from signals suggesting the Federal Reserve is not in a rush to cut interest rates anytime soon. Despite indications from the Fed that it lowered its economic growth forecasts during the latest FOMC meeting, the dollar remains in a favorable position. Furthermore, as the markets keep a close eye on upcoming discussions regarding U.S. tariffs and inflation metrics such as the PCE/Core PCE figures scheduled for release next week, sentiment remains mixed.
Karnjana also provided projections for the baht's movements for today, estimating that it will likely trade between 33.65 and 33.90 baht per dollar. Key factors influencing this fluctuation include Thailand's exports for February, the trajectory of gold prices on the global stage, and incoming foreign fund flows. There is also ongoing scrutiny over trade tensions and policies involving significant partners.
Meanwhile, in the stock market, analysts expect a sideways movement in the Thai stock market, with trading anticipated within the range of 1,170 to 1,200 points. Wijit Arayaphisit, an investment strategist from Liboerator Securities, noted that the Thai stock market opened slightly up by two points compared to the previous close. On March 21, the stock market responded positively to recent U.S. labor statistics, which revealed initial claims for unemployment benefits at 223,000, slightly lower than the anticipated 224,000. This slight improvement reflects a reasonably stable labor market, contributing positively to market sentiment.
Furthermore, home sales in February showed a robust increase, recording 4.26 million units sold—essentially a 4.2% rise from the previous month. This number stands in sharp contrast to market expectations that predicted a contraction of 3.2% compared to January.
Despite these positive indicators, investment sentiments remain cautious due to concerns regarding potential interest rate hikes and the aggressive tax policies of the Trump administration, which are expected to remain potent for the next couple of months, thus exerting pressure on stock markets globally.
In a domestic context, Thailand's central bank has been taking proactive measures to stimulate economic growth. On March 20, the Bank of Thailand temporarily eased regulations regarding loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, allowing for a 100% LTV for housing loans valued under 10 million baht in zone 2, and for houses valued above this amount in zone 1. This measure is set to take effect from May 1, 2025, until June 30, 2026, and aims to alleviate the high levels of unsold property and encourage related business sectors.
Export figures from Thailand are forecasted to remain strong, with projections estimating about 25 billion dollars—marking an 8% increase from the previous year. Analysts advise for today’s market outlook to remain attentive to these export figures as they release for February, expecting them to showcase continued economic resilience.
Moreover, the stock market may experience heightened volatility due to the FTSE Rebalancing, which is likely to drive transaction volumes in the SET above normal levels as traders reposition their portfolios. As investors adjust their strategies, there are recommendations for stocks that showcase attractive valuations during this period.
One stock, GFPT, is highlighted positively, with analysts giving a target price of 11.80 baht. The company's anticipations for Q1 profits suggest recovery from the previous quarter, aided by a drop in raw material costs and a rise in the prices of by-products, indicating a promising outlook for future earnings.
With the current P/E ratio standing at 5.7 times, GFPT is viewed as a favorable opportunity for mid-term investments within the meat sector. Analysts expect the ongoing improvements in the food industry and adjustments in pricing dynamics to further bolster the company’s performance.
Investors are advised to remain watchful of these varied conditions, balancing the positive domestic news against the turbulent global backdrop, particularly relating to macroeconomic policies impacting trade and currency valuation. The unfolding economic landscape looks to be a mixed bag of challenges and opportunities, keeping both local and international stakeholders engaged.
