Tensions are once again flaring on the Israel-Lebanon border, marked by increasing hostilities between Israeli forces and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. On Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the Jewish state is "prepared for very intense action in the north," responding to Hezbollah's continued rocket and drone attacks.
Speaking from an Israeli military base in Kiryat Shmona, Netanyahu stated, "We said at the start of the war that we would restore security in both the south and the north—and this is what we are doing. Today, I am on the northern border with our heroic fighters and commanders, as well as with our firefighters. Yesterday the ground burned here, but also in Lebanon."
Netanyahu's remarks were set against a backdrop of significant recent events. On Tuesday, the IDF shot down a "hostile aircraft infiltration," adding to the ongoing cycle of violence. Netanyahu asserted, "Whoever thinks they can hurt us, and we will respond by sitting on our hands is making a big mistake. We are prepared for very intense action in the north. One way or another, we will restore security to the north."
Since October 7, hostilities have led to the evacuation of approximately 80,000 Israelis from border areas, swept by flames due to the incessant attacks by Hezbollah. Just this week, northern Israel was engulfed in massive fires sparked by a barrage of rockets and drones from the terror group. More than 30 crews worked overnight to control wildfires in the Galilee and Golan regions.
"Israel initially prioritized dealing with Gaza before addressing the north," Brig. Gen. (Res) Amir Avivi, a former deputy commander of the IDF's Gaza Division, commented. "In the coming weeks, the main missions in Rafah will conclude. Most troops will be sent north, and there will be a threat to Hezbollah, urging them to retreat according to U.N. resolution 1701. If they don't, and there is no international pressure, Israel will have to launch a ground incursion into southern Lebanon, destroying most of Hezbollah's long-range capabilities," he stated.
The United Nations and Western nations have, according to Avivi, failed to enforce the disarmament required by U.N. resolution 1701. He reasoned that Hezbollah exploits "the weakness of the West in their inability to threaten them." The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook estimates Hezbollah to possess upwards of 150,000 missiles and rockets, including precision missiles, drones, and anti-tank weaponry.
Avivi predicted a forthcoming conflict, albeit shorter and more intense than those witnessed in Gaza. "Hezbollah will likely target Haifa and Tel Aviv. The war may last a month to a month and a half, followed by Israel taking control of southern Lebanon, setting terms for the return of citizens," he suggested.
Also on Wednesday, after an attack on the U.S. embassy in Lebanon, the embassy issued a warning for U.S. citizens to avoid travel to border areas. The same day, a Hezbollah attack hit the Israeli village of Hurfeish, wounding eleven individuals, three critically.
Israel's history with Hezbollah includes full-scale wars in 1982 and 2006. These engagements have shaped the current strategies and responses from both sides. In the latest escalation, U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller emphasized, "We do not support a full war with Hezbollah. We don’t want to see that happen. However, Israel has the right to defend itself from Hezbollah’s attacks."
Netanyahu's firm stance is echoed by IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, who stated the IDF is "prepared after rigorous training" to launch attacks in the north. He conveyed that the military has reached a decision point, ready to move from defense to offense.
However, the perspective within Israel isn't monolithic. Far-right Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir vociferously called for the destruction of Hezbollah, declaring on Telegram, "It cannot be that our land is being targeted and harmed, and people here have evacuated. All Hezbollah strongholds must be burned and destroyed. War!"
In contrast, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich noted that the IDF is hesitant to broaden the war to eliminate Hezbollah outright. Instead, operational strategies remain focused on targeted, defensive measures.
Hezbollah's Naim Qassem underlined the group's resolve, stating they support Gaza and will not cease their actions until the war there stops. He insinuated that Israel's threats are not serious and affirmed their readiness for an all-out war if imposed on them.
According to Amos Harel, a defense analyst for Haaretz, Israel faces a strategic conundrum in the north, unable to compel Hezbollah into a ceasefire due to ongoing conflicts with Gaza. Harel highlighted the complex dynamics at play, noting that despite suffering higher losses, Hezbollah has managed to create a de facto 'security zone' inside Israeli territory.
Experts on Hezbollah expressed varied views on the course of action. Edy Cohen, a researcher at the Eitan Center, contended that Hezbollah's support for Gaza has been a consistent factor. He criticized Israel's strategy, pointing to a need for broader action against Beirut, not just southern Lebanon.
Dr. Walid Phares, an Mideast expert, emphasized the interlinked nature of Hezbollah's actions with Iran's regime, describing the ongoing conflict as Iran's war with Israel, fought using Hezbollah.
The conflict's toll is stark: the IDF reports around 300 Hezbollah fighters killed, with Reuters citing approximately 80 civilian casualties in Lebanon from Israeli fire. The displacement figures are grim, with 94,000 Lebanese and over 53,000 Israelis forced to flee their homes.
As both sides brace for potential further escalation, the international community watches with apprehension. The complexity of the situation underscores the profound geopolitical and humanitarian stakes involved. Whether through diplomatic channels or direct action, the resolution of this conflict will shape the landscape of Middle Eastern politics for years to come.
