The election of Pope Francis' successor began on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, amid a charged atmosphere of symbolism and tension at the Vatican. During the Mass Pro Eligendo Pontifice at St. Peter's Basilica, a couple of gestures from Giovanni Battista Re, the Dean of the College of Cardinals, sparked controversy before the official start of the 2025 conclave.
The first sign of a rift was evident in Cardinal Battista Re's homily. For the first time in decades, there was no mention of the outgoing Pope. Unlike in 2005 and 2013, when John Paul II and Benedict XVI were referenced, Jorge Mario Bergoglio's name was conspicuously absent. Many within the Holy See interpreted this omission as a deliberate distancing from the reforms initiated by Francis. "He couldn't have forgotten; it's intentional," commented a senior prelate.
The real controversy erupted at the end of the ceremony when Battista Re embraced Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Secretary of State, and said, "Auguri" (congratulations). Some even claim he uttered "Auguri doppi" (double congratulations), a gesture interpreted as a symbolic endorsement—perhaps even a pre-investiture—amid a conclave many consider pivotal for the Church's future. Images of the moment quickly circulated on social media, igniting a wave of reactions and analyses among the faithful and Vatican experts.
In addition to omitting Francis, Battista Re's homily emphasized the need for the new pontiff to possess negotiation skills in a tumultuous world. "The world expects much from the Church to uphold fundamental values," he stated, signaling a clear nod to Parolin's diplomatic profile. In a deeply polarized College of Cardinals, every word and gesture is scrutinized. While some view Parolin as the ideal candidate to stabilize the Holy See, others fear his potential election could halt critical reforms championed by Pope Francis.
As of now, no white or black smoke has emerged from the Sistine Chapel, but the tension in the Vatican is undeniable. This 2025 conclave will not only define the new leader of the Catholic Church but also represents a crucial test of the direction Catholicism will take in the coming years.
In the betting world, nearly $20 million has been reported in wagers regarding the new Pope, a staggering 50 times more than during the previous conclave in 2013. Back then, Angelo Scola was the favorite to succeed Benedict XVI, while Jorge Mario Bergoglio was a long shot at 55 to 1. This time, Cardinal Pietro Parolin leads the pack with 2 to 1 odds, translating to a 30.8% probability of victory. Following him is Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle from the Philippines, with slightly better than 3 to 1 odds, or a 23.1% chance.
Other candidates include Italian cardinals Matteo Maria Zuppi and Pierbattista Pizzaballa, alongside Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson, who has +900 odds and a 10% chance. The betting landscape has become a curious mix of tradition and modernity, with many people engaging in a new online game called "Fantapapa," allowing users to choose their favorite candidates, similar to fantasy football.
As the cardinals deliberate, the stakes are high. The conclave is attended by 133 cardinals, each a candidate for the papacy. Among the notable names are Cardinal Martin Francis Prevost, born in Chicago but granted Peruvian citizenship for his missionary work. He has maintained a good relationship with Francis and is favored by conservative factions, including former President Donald Trump.
Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi, 69, has been the president of the Italian Episcopal Conference since 2022. He is often referred to as the "Italian Bergoglio" due to his focus on social justice and care for migrants. If elected, he would be the first Italian pope since John Paul I in 1978.
Another strong contender is Cardinal Louis Antonio Gokim Tagle, 67, Archbishop of Manila, who has gained attention for his effective use of social media to evangelize the youth. His engaging personality was showcased when he was seen dancing during a mass in Poland in 2018. If elected, he would become the first Asian pope, a long-held desire of Pope Francis.
Cardinal Mario Grech, Archbishop of Malta and secretary general of the Synod of Bishops in 2020, is another prominent figure in this conclave. He represents a continuation of Francis's synodal vision. Cardinal Robert Sarah, 79, known for his opposition to some of Francis's policies, adds a layer of complexity to the discussions.
As the world watches, the conclave's outcome remains uncertain. The convergence of tradition, modernity, and the pressing need for reform creates a unique backdrop for this pivotal moment in the Catholic Church's history. The decisions made in the coming days will resonate far beyond the Vatican, influencing the lives of millions around the globe.
In summary, the 2025 papal conclave is not just about electing a new pope; it is a reflection of the Catholic Church's struggle to navigate the complexities of contemporary society while remaining true to its core values. The outcome will shape the Church's future direction, and the world eagerly awaits the decision of the cardinals.
