A recent poll conducted by EMRS has cast a troubling shadow over the Tasmanian Liberal government, whose popularity appears to be dwindling following the release of its latest state budget. The survey, which questioned 500 Tasmanians, revealed not only public sentiments on the budget itself but also voter intentions as the politics of Tasmania evolve.
The figures show only 28 percent of respondents would opt for the Liberals if elections were held tomorrow, just two percentage points above Labor, which garnered 26 percent support. Meanwhile, the Greens are trailing with 17 percent, and the Jacqui Lambie Network hangs onto a mere 5 percent of voter preference.
Earlier this year, August’s EMRS poll painted the Liberals with a bit more favor, showing 36 percent backing, whereas Labor stood at 27 percent with the Greens at 14 percent. It’s clear the winds of change are blowing, and the most recent data seems indicative of significant dissatisfaction.
When the pollsters posed specific questions about satisfaction with the budget allocations, the findings intensified concerns over the government's performance. Only 11 percent of participants expressed contentment with proposals aimed at alleviating the cost of living, with dissatisfaction from 63 percent. Health and housing figures were similarly bleak; 21 percent approved of measures for health, as opposed to 61 percent who disapproved, and 16 percent were happy with housing strategies against 61 percent who were not.
The reactions to the budget were overwhelmingly negative, to say the least; the words most frequently used by respondents included "debt," "irresponsible," and "poor." A staggering 38 percent of those surveyed believed the budget would adversely impact their financial situations, compared to only 6 percent who felt they would be financially improved by its measures.
Ken Drake, acting general manager of EMRS, did not mince words about the budget’s reception. He noted, "It is notable the word most associated with the budget is 'debt,' which is something the government has taken much heat over."
He added, "These numbers suggest the Liberal vote has dropped significantly since the last election, yet it also appears Labor is struggling to convert this dissatisfaction to their advantage."
Adding to the challenges faced by the Liberals, Deputy Premier Michael Ferguson was recently forced to resign from his cabinet position due to his handling of the Bass Strait ferry rollout fiasco. This has put additional pressure on the state’s minority Liberal government, making the path forward seem even more precarious.
Ferguson’s resignation is symbolic of larger issues within the government, as many see it as emblematic of broader mismanagement. The ferry service, aimed at connecting Tasmania to mainland Australia more effectively, was rolled out poorly, drawing sharp criticism and causing public trust to falter.
The resignation, along with the negative poll results, has left the government scrambling to manage both public perception and internal strife. Premier Jeremy Rockliff, who took office vowing to focus on stability and service delivery, is now faced with mounting challenges from within and outside the party. This period of turbulence raises questions about how the government can regain the trust of voters and weather the growing storm.
With the next state election looming on the horizon, all eyes are on the Liberals to see how they will address the issues laid bare by the EMRS poll and Ferguson’s departure. Markedly, the lack of substantial new policies and the perceived shortcomings of existing ones could hinder their ability to rally voter support.
The changing dynamics of Tasmanian politics may also offer space for Labor to exploit the current dissatisfaction; they must position themselves as the viable alternative. This situation sets the stage for potential shifts, as voters may be seeking new leadership types and fresh policies.
What remains clear is the reality facing the Tasmanian Liberal government: rapid response and redemption may be needed to meet the challenges thrown up by public dissatisfaction and intra-party conflict. The upcoming challenges are not simply electoral but also deeply tied to the trust and confidence of the electorate whose mood seems to point to the necessity for change.
Only time will tell how the Liberal government navigates this complex political terrain and if it can rebuild its support base before the next election—time, after all, runs swiftly when public perception is at stake.
