In the rolling fields of eastern Washington, the wheat harvest is wrapping up, but the mood among U.S. wheat farmers is anything but celebratory. The usually routine visit of a trade delegation from Southeast Asia—comprised of mill operators and grain buyers from Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines—has taken on new urgency this year. As reported by NPR, these buyers are key partners for American wheat, especially from Washington state, which leads the nation in wheat exports. About 90% of the dryland wheat grown in Washington is shipped out through west coast ports, making export markets absolutely vital for the region’s farmers.
This year, however, the familiar rhythms of harvest and trade have been disrupted by global uncertainty and political tension. The Trump administration’s recent imposition of roughly 20% tariffs on imports from the very countries represented by the delegation has set off alarms among farmers and exporters. There’s growing anxiety that these long-standing partners may soon look elsewhere for their wheat, especially if retaliatory tariffs are introduced or if the political climate continues to sour.
Casey Chumrau, CEO of the Washington Grain Commission, emphasized the decades of work that have gone into building these trade relationships. “The commission was founded in 1958 and obviously we've been through many different political administrations and we always come back to the relationships we have with our customers,” Chumrau told NPR. She remains optimistic, saying, “I am very confident that we are going to continue to have strong demand.” Yet, beneath this confidence, there’s a palpable sense of unease.
Farmers like Jim Moyer, whose family has worked the land in eastern Washington since 1891, are feeling the strain. Moyer expressed concern that, while retaliatory tariffs are a worry, the bigger risk is that buyers might simply shift their business elsewhere. “It isn't that they will levy retaliatory tariffs necessarily, they might, but that they might just go someplace else,” Moyer warned. This uncertainty makes it nearly impossible for producers to plan for the future, a sentiment echoed by many in the industry.
The Trump administration has promised relief aid for farmers if needed, much as it did during the 2018 trade war. Still, the region’s anxiety is hard to miss. Farmers and trade groups are working overtime to reassure foreign buyers that the U.S. remains a reliable supplier—despite the volatile political environment and ongoing tariff battles.
Economic pressures are mounting on multiple fronts. The cost of fertilizer—most of which is imported from Canada—has risen sharply, and supply chain disruptions stemming from the pandemic have sent equipment prices soaring. Tom Kammerzell, another local farmer whose family’s roots in the Palouse stretch back to 1855, put it bluntly: “Break even is about $6.50 and it doesn't take a wizard to figure out that we're underwater,” he said, noting that the current price for wheat is only about $5 a bushel. With combines now costing up to $1 million, Kammerzell added, “It's going to be tough, bottom line. Thank God for crop insurance.”
Despite a better-than-expected harvest given the dry spring, the global wheat glut is driving prices down. This has left farmers in the Pacific Northwest facing a two- to three-year agricultural recession, according to Moyer, who is also a retired university agronomist. “We're in a period of two or three years of being in an agricultural recession,” he told NPR. Uncertainty, he added, is the one thing business simply cannot tolerate.
While U.S. farmers grapple with these challenges, the global wheat market is also in flux. According to Reuters, on August 20, 2025, the Euronext December wheat contract settled 0.3% lower at 193.25 euros ($225.31) per ton, matching the contract low from the previous day. Chicago wheat prices initially rose, buoyed by a weaker dollar, but later pared those gains. These shifts underscore the volatility that has become the norm in international grain markets.
Much of this volatility stems from developments in Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter. Consultancy Sovecon recently raised its forecast for the Russian wheat harvest, but cautioned that logistical bottlenecks—specifically, the challenge of moving wheat from inland regions to ports—are slowing exports. This sluggish start to Russia’s export campaign has created opportunities for French wheat exporters, who have seen increased sales to Egypt, Tunisia, and Thailand.
Still, traders are keenly watching for signs that Russian wheat will soon flood the market, increasing competition and potentially driving prices even lower. On August 20, Russian 12.5% protein wheat for September shipment was quoted at $237-$241 per ton FOB, with buyers angling for prices closer to $236. Russian 11.5% protein wheat hovered around $233-$236 per ton, according to traders cited by Reuters. "Russian prices are dipping slightly with more farmer selling but not the heavy falls in prices normally expected in Russia after the harvest," a German trader said. Some in the market anticipate sharper price drops later in the month.
The ongoing war in Ukraine also looms large over the wheat market. Both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters through the Black Sea, and hopes for a diplomatic resolution under the aegis of U.S. President Donald Trump have made investors cautious. Any progress—or lack thereof—in peace talks could have immediate ramifications for global grain flows.
Elsewhere in Europe, the German wheat harvest is nearing completion, aided by a spell of dry, sunny weather. Traders expect the harvest to wrap up within the week, with a large crop anticipated. However, up to 30% of the German wheat could be downgraded to feed quality due to repeated summer rains, making some farmers hesitant to sell. Despite these concerns, the overall volume is expected to ensure adequate supplies for both domestic and export markets.
In France, the latest harvest quality survey from FranceAgriMer revealed that the proportion of soft wheat with at least 11% protein is still below last year’s level, though test weights are higher. This nuanced quality picture is shaping both domestic and export strategies for French farmers. Meanwhile, financial investors have extended their net short position in Euronext wheat, reflecting a broader sense of caution and uncertainty in the market.
Back in the U.S., as the dust settles on another wheat harvest, the stakes remain high. Farmers and exporters are doing their best to maintain relationships and reassure buyers, but the future is far from certain. With tariffs, global competition, and political tensions all at play, American wheat growers are left hoping that decades of trust and partnership will be enough to weather the storm.
For now, the wheat fields of eastern Washington stand as a testament to resilience—but also as a stark reminder that in the interconnected world of global agriculture, the next challenge is always just around the corner.
