The NCAA Tournament is always filled with surprises, and this year's First Four game is no exception. On Tuesday, March 18, 2025, the North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13) will face off against the San Diego State Aztecs (21-9) at the UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. The game is set to tip-off at approximately 9:10 p.m. ET and will be broadcasted on truTV. This matchup has all the ingredients to keep basketball fans on the edge of their seats.
Both teams come in as 11-seeds, making this encounter particularly compelling. The Tar Heels, known for their storied basketball tradition, were the last team selected for this year's tournament field. Athletic director Bubba Cunningham, who serves on the selection committee, stands to earn a six-figure bonus as his team advances to the tournament. Yet, the Tar Heels' path to the tournament has been rocky: they finished the regular season with a disappointing 1-12 record against Quad 1 opponents, which left many questioning their place among the 68 teams. On the flip side, they excelled with an 8-0 record against Quad 2 teams, defeating notable opponents such as the Dayton Flyers and SMU Mustangs.
The momentum for North Carolina is buoyed by their recent performance, coming close to pushing Duke to overtime during the ACC Tournament semifinals. A lane violation by forward Jae-Lyn Withers just seconds before the game ended cost North Carolina the chance to tie, resulting instead in Duke's narrow 74-71 win on March 15, 2025.
San Diego State enters the tournament with its own story of resilience. After finishing the regular season 21-9, the Aztecs faced challenges late, losing three of their last six games, including defeat against Boise State in the Mountain West quarterfinals on March 13. Despite this setback, the Aztecs maintain high spirits, especially since they reached the Sweet 16 last year, albeit having lost their top seven scorers from the previous season. Coach Brian Dutcher expressed pride in his team's effort, particularly underscoring their dramatic improvement this season. “To make it to the NCAA Tournament again is a tremendous accomplishment, especially due to the fact we lost 90% of our scoring and minutes from last year,” he stated.
Statistically, San Diego State has proven to be formidable, boasting four wins against ranked opponents, including notable victories over the No. 4 ranked Houston Cougars and the Creighton Bluejays. The Aztecs, highly regarded for their defensive prowess, rank 14th nationally, allowing only 63.6 points per game and limiting opposing teams to 37.8% shooting from the field.
With the teams set to clash, the betting lines have also drawn interest. North Carolina is favored with moneyline odds at -210, meaning you would need to bet $210 to win $100. San Diego State, on the other hand, offers +170 odds, indicating a $100 bet would yield $170 if victorious. The spread favors North Carolina, who is set at -4.5. This indicates they are expected to win by at least five points. The over/under for the game is set at 142.5 points, hinting at what could be a tightly contested game.
Experts and analysts are divided on predictions, but many believe the Aztecs will edge out the Tar Heels, with the score forecasted at 73-69. This prediction has stirred some chatter across social media, especially among supporters who have voiced skepticism over North Carolina's selection for the tournament.
Fans will certainly be tuning in not only to witness the battle on the court but also to see if San Diego State can capitalize on their defensive prowess and previous NCAA Tournament experience against a team like North Carolina, which struggles against rigorous defenses.
For those eager to follow the action, the next round awaits the winner, who will face the 6-seed Mississippi team on Friday, March 21, 2025, at 1:05 p.m. PT, giving both teams more to play for beyond just this single elimination game.
With both teams having something to prove, the NCAA First Four matchup is undoubtedly set to be memorable. North Carolina would aim to silence critics questioning their entry, whereas San Diego State looks to demonstrate their strength against traditional powerhouse North Carolina and advance to the next stage of the tournament.
