With the U.S. Presidential Election looming, the world is watching closely to see how the outcome might ripple across international waters, particularly when it concerns Taiwan. The race has become more than just about domestic politics; it casts shadows on the geopolitical chessboard with China as the reigning player aiming to reclaim Taiwan, which it views as part of its territory.
Taiwan has traditionally enjoyed strong bipartisan support from the U.S. But as the battle between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump heats up, analysts wonder just how reliable this support might remain. Observers are especially concerned about Trump's earlier presidency, where his affinity for strongmen like Xi Jinping raised eyebrows. Would he shy away from backing Taiwan?
Recent months have seen Taiwanese officials adopting caution, knowing they need to navigate this murky political terrain. Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister François Chihchung Wu articulated the island's concerns, stressing their apprehension about what the American elections might mean for their security. "Of course, we are very concerned by the presidential election of the U.S., because the U.S. is our most important ally," Wu commented.
The stakes are apparent when you look at public sentiment; polls indicate Harris and Trump are neck and neck. This tense backdrop adds urgency as the possibility of conflict with China looms. Despite having established relations with China back in 1979, the U.S. formally maintains its One China policy, which acknowledges but does not endorse China’s claim over Taiwan.
While the Americans do not push for Taiwan’s formal independence, they nonetheless support it militarily. This support was exemplified when Biden affirmed he would defend Taiwan against potential Chinese aggression and approved major arms sales nearly worth $2 billion, including advanced missile defense systems.
Yet, Trump's narrative has shifted recently. He has made comments implying Taiwan is responsible for “stealing” U.S. semiconductor industry jobs and even suggested they might need to pay for defense support from the U.S. This transactional viewpoint raises alarm bells for Taiwanese leaders.
Wu took exception to Trump’s claims, stating Taiwan already invests heavily—"we pay for our own defense," he declared. This money contributes toward their own military capabilities and development. Still, should the trend continue where American ties are viewed as conditional, many Taiwanese officials worry about their island's future.
"For Mr. Trump, he always said he wants to make America great again. By abandoning Taiwan, how could he make America great again? He would lose the respect of the region,” Wu opined, hinting at Taiwan's delicate position amid broader American foreign policy debates.
Trump's comments paint Taiwan's dependencies almost as if they're obligations, which has observers raising the question: if such sentiments escalate, could Taiwan go from ally to bargaining chip? The Chinese government, with its own ambitions to absorb Taiwan, has been watching this election closely, drawing conclusions about potential shifts in U.S. policy.
Experts have taken to analyzing who might come out on top and how either candidate’s presidency would affect Taiwan's geopolitical standing. Under Trump, there may be more doubts about how unwavering American support might be, especially if he follows through with his talk of transactional alliances.
Conversely, should Harris win, the narrative suggests continuity; Biden and Harris would likely maintain the strategic ambiguity of American policy. This policy has blended military support with respectful engagement and is considered by many experts as non-confrontational. But some analysts argue this could change if they recognize China's growing assertiveness.
Scholars predict the Taiwan Strait could see bumpy waters regardless of who wins, with notable shifts possible based on domestic policies dictated by the new president. For example, some experts, including Liu Fuguo from the National Chengchi International Relations Center, fear Trump could push for less multilateral engagement. “Taiwan won’t enjoy Trump’s support for free; it must pay protection fees,” Liu has warned, indicating Taiwan must prepare for tough negotiations.
Mainland Affairs Council’s Liang Wen-chieh echoed such sentiments, discussing the dependence on the U.S. for peace and stability. He suggested Trump’s approach may provoke more aggression from Beijing, potentially testing Taiwan's limits defensively.
Another angle pertains to the semiconductor industry, which has become pivotal amid the global tech race. The U.S. already recognizes Taiwan's integral role and plans to provide $7 billion through the CHIPS Act aimed at strengthening semiconductor partnerships. Yet, Trump's previous remarks targeting Taiwan’s chip allocation raise issues about whether he views cooperation as beneficial for both sides.
And should Trump return to power, some recommend Taiwan adopt agile measures to counter any fallout from U.S.-China forceful engagements. The need for Taiwan to adapt and prepare for diverse scenarios has never been more pronounced among analysts, with concerns about potential consequences impacting the island.
The dynamics are fluid as observers await the election results, wondering whether Taiwan will face prolonged uncertainty or perhaps even new forms of engagement. This leads to larger questions about who among the two contenders can effectively balance the U.S.-China relations to secure Taiwan's security and stability.
Analysts also posit China’s increasing military pressure on Taiwan, as they flex their muscles through military drills and assertive rhetoric. Such maneuvers only escalate fears of miscalculations leading to potential cross-strait confrontations.
Through careful navigation of the ever-shifting sentiments within U.S. policy, Taiwan strives not just to survive but to secure its place within the international community, particularly as alliances shift globally. Looking toward the American elections signals how much more complex the future of U.S.-Taiwan relations may become.
Whichever candidate emerges victorious, Taiwan's leaders remain determined to redefine their own identity and bolster their national defense. The island is stepping up to face anything the future might hold, evidenced by recent military upgrades and plans to improve internal security. Their cautious optimism reflects faith in maintaining longstanding alliances, hoping those bonds will hold steadfast even through turbulent tides of international politics.
While future relationships may become transactional under Trump's philosophy, Harris's camp might lean toward more diplomatic and supportive initiatives, marking different paths for Taiwan's future. It generates urgency as voting day nears, underlining the lessons learned through time-tested interactions between Taiwan and its most important ally, the United States, as they brace for the next chapter of this century-old story.
