Over the last decade, the Syrian civil war has morphed from mass protests against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime to the current state of chaotic conflict, with power shifts and dramatic twists redefining the battlefield. Recently, the conflict took the world by surprise. Syrian rebels, particularly the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched the most significant offensive yet, capturing key areas including Aleppo, marking the first time they completely seized this pivotal city since the war's inception.
This sudden surge by the rebels raised eyebrows within both the Syrian regime and its Russian allies. Just as reports emerged of the rebel advance, Assad's military, which had spent years entrenched and largely unmoved, found itself reeling from the unexpected gains made by its opponents. This spirit of resistance, previously stifled and suppressed, suddenly became shockingly emboldened.
On the ground, the rebel forces’ major offensive began on Saturday and culminated within days, leading to government forces' chaotic retreat from Aleppo and surrounding areas. Footage from the ground displayed the rebels vowing to march on Damascus, the national capital, chanting, "We are coming, Damascus!" This increasing confidence among rebel factions is juxtaposed against the backdrop of regime failures.
The announcement of such surprising gains, captured by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, indicated how quickly the balance of power can shift. Even though Aleppo had seen fierce battles earlier in the war, its total seizure meant the regime faced losing its operational hub—an alarming prospect for Assad’s government.
According to many observers, the regime forces met with little resistance as the rebels advanced. The tide began to shift when groups like HTS united under one command, strategically planning their moves across various fronts. HTS’s commander, Abu Hassan al-Hamwi, revealed how his group coordinated with resistance factions from across the nation, displaying not just military might, but strategic prowess.
This organization and planning took time, though, as HTS spent years honing its military tactics after suffering casualties during previous confrontations. They effectively formed joint command rooms and were able to rally disparate groups under their banner, consolidators of strength rather than fragments. Al-Hamwi emphasized the lessons learned from past engagements as they restructured and trained for this moment.
Another pivotal factor enabling this rapid advancement was external support, particularly from intelligence operations like those conducted by Israel and Ukraine, aimed at destabilizing and disrupting Assad's military backers. The Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad, executed operations against Hezbollah communications, which significantly weakened their foothold and morale. Alongside those operations, Ukrainian intelligence provided drones and operatives to assist the rebels, demonstrating the interconnectedness of these geopolitical struggles.
While the gains made by HTS and allied factions are astonishing, they stem from years of discontent, dependence on foreign alliances, and deteriorated morale within the ranks of Assad’s army. Many accounts have emerged detailing the corruption and instability plaguing the Syrian military. Some soldiers recounted how the army operated with insufficient manpower and poor command, leading many to desert or flee their posts amid the rebellion.
This was vividly illustrated by tales from Syrian conscripts like Farhan al-Khouli, whose experiences epitomized the internal decay. Having seen his unit systematically abandon their positions, morale plummeted as soldiers realized they could escape the harsh regime conditions without consequence.
Military insiders have described how the regime's reliance on foreign allies like Iranian forces and Hezbollah meant cracks emerged when such backing faltered. The Iranian advisory role and Hezbollah’s combat support were pivotal at various times throughout the war, but the recent shifts have led to reduced effectiveness. Even as the fighting had intensified previously, many soldiers reported high levels of bribery and absences due to unsatisfactory salaries and conditions.
The stage was set for HTS’s rebellion against the regime when they sensed weakness. Reports show the preparation for the offensive spanned over two years, culminating with both internal organization and external opportunities aligning to create the perfect storm against Assad’s forces.
HTS recognized strategic openings as regional actors slowed their support for Assad. With Russia engaged elsewhere, particularly with their military commitments arising out of the situation in Ukraine, and Hezbollah redirected their focus to conflicts against Israel, HTS found themselves paving the way for their ultimate offensive.
Once the rebels stormed Aleppo, it served not only as a gateway to the capital but signified the beginning of the regime’s unraveling. Al-Hamwi commented on the importance of Aleppo for the regime’s legitimacy, stating, “a government without Aleppo is not really a functional government of Syria.”
By early December, the rebel forces had swiftly advanced onward, with reports surfacing from various fronts displaying the Assad regime disintegrate. The fierce battles they once engaged long ago began to disappear as the rebels rapidly seized occupied territory, emboldened by their recent triumphs.
What does the future hold amid this reshaping of the battlefield dynamics? Many questions linger over the actual governance of the territories the rebels now control as concerns grow about repercussions on Syria's rich but troubled ethnic and social fabric. HTS, once regarded purely as terrorists by some, now faces the international spotlight and pressure to show their adherence to human rights and civil governance as they build out their claim of legitimacy.
To complicate matters, fears among Syria’s minorities resurface—a haunting echo from the years of conflict. Governance under HTS could present challenges, leading to speculation about how well they can truly integrate all communities. Al-Hamwi has made public reassurances about inclusion and respect for diverse cultural practices, pledging, “we affirm minorities’ rights and will protect their rituals like all other Syrian citizens.”
Ironically, the very same air of uncertainty and instability could provide ample ground for renewed discord. The balance of power remains fragile as the new force attempts to establish control. Onlookers worldwide are left wondering: will HTS follow through on its promises of inclusion, or will this newfound power struggle devolve back to past grievances? Only time will reveal whether the next chapter of Syria’s tumultuous history will yield peace or progression back to conflict.