DAMASCUS, Syria—Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, the Islamist rebel leader, has made headlines, exchanging his military fatigues for formal attire as he positions himself as the new face of governance amid Syria's turbulent regime change. Speaking to foreign journalists at the cabinet building of the Syrian capital on Monday, just weeks after his forces secured control, al-Jawlani laid out ambitious plans to overhaul the country's constitution and institutions.
Al-Jawlani, who leads the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), noted the gravity of the task at hand and issued a cautionary tone, stating, "This process will take time" as the new authorities strive to establish stability and unite the nation.
HTS has been at the forefront of the anti-Assad movement, especially since recent developments saw the regime crumble under rebel pressure. Al-Jawlani's emergence as a statesman appears to be part of a deliberate strategy to gain legitimacy on the world stage. He emphasized the necessity of transitioning from revolutionary ideals to practical governance, declaring, "We need to transform from our past" to build enduring political frameworks founded on law and institution.
The sentiment of reform resonates with the Syrian populace, who have long been yearning for peace and order after years of violent conflict. The international community’s reaction has so far been cautiously optimistic. Al-Jawlani's leadership, according to experts, signals potential for constructive engagement with foreign powers, particularly Türkiye and the United States. HTS, known previously for its ties to Al-Qaeda, is attempting to reshape its image to attract diplomatic relations.
This radical pivot is underscored by the broader geopolitical currents shaping Syria's future. Multiple forces, including Türkiye, the U.S., and other nations, played pivotal roles leading to the downfall of Bashar al-Assad. Al-Jawlani's speeches reflect attempts to align with these global powers, seeking their support for his vision of Syria.
With his government still consolidifying power, challenges abound. A significant undertaking lies in establishing legitimacy among the various Syrian factions and demonstrating the ability to govern inclusively. The new cabinet, filled entirely by members of HTS, currently showcases limited representation for minorities and women, eliciting skepticism from both locals and international observers. Al-Jawlani and his administration will need to prove their commitment to inclusivity to gain broader acceptance.
Meanwhile, the economic situation remains dire, with estimates indicating recovery costs post-conflict could reach $300 billion. Al-Jawlani's government faces the monumental task of rebuilding effectively and sustainably to rejuvenate the war-torn economy. Although HTS controls significant resources, including oil, integrating these assets within national governance remains contentious. Ensuring these resources benefit all Syrians will be key to long-term stability.
Concerning security dynamics, the HTS is also tasked with managing various armed groups and preventing any resurgence of extremist factions within its territories. Al-Jawlani's assurance of law and order is promising, yet historical precedents raise doubts about the efficacy of such commitments without clear action plans.
Another priority for the administration is constitutional reform, which remains deeply contested. Al-Jawlani's government plans to hold elections, allowing Syrians to shape their future leadership choices, yet this ambition is shadowed by the pressing need to establish functional governance structures first.
At the international level, Türkiye's role is particularly pronounced, as it has emerged as the main facilitator of the transition process, fostering dialogue between HTS and other stakeholders. The reopening of the Turkish embassy and the appointment of Burhan Köroğlu as chargé d'affaires signal Ankara's intent to engage deeply with the new regime and assist with the reconstruction efforts.
While al-Jawlani's promises hint at potential political reform, they are reflected against the backdrop of deep-seated mistrust held by many Syrians based on past grievances. The government must navigate the dual challenge of establishing credibility through communication and engagement, all within the complex web of regional and international relations.
With various factions maneuvering around the new political architecture, al-Jawlani's government's approach to diplomacy will be central to securing the much-needed support from regional allies and the wider international community. Observers note the importance of HTS showcasing its seriousness about reform through tangible actions over mere rhetoric.
Given the precarious conditions, every misstep carries substantial risks, including rekindling internal clashes among discordant political factions. Hence, the global community remains alert, awaiting how the HTS-led transitional governance can navigate these delicate and chaotic waters effectively.
The next several months are pivotal for both al-Jawlani and the Syrian populace, as hopes hover around the potential for peace and stabilization. Al-Jawlani's next decisions will not only shape Syria's future but may also redefine the broader Middle Eastern political climate.
