Syria's civil war, now stretching over 13 tumultuous years, has seen yet another dramatic turn, as insurgents seized control of Aleppo, marking the first substantial victory against President Bashar al-Assad's grip on power since 2016. This unexpected shift began with a swift offensive on November 27, 2024, by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allied factions, unleashing fierce fighting across northern Syria.
For many, Aleppo symbolizes the devastation and the brutal realities of the Syrian conflict. Once a thriving metropolis and economic powerhouse, the city has been embroiled in years of siege, airstrikes, and warfare. The euphoric celebrations by anti-government fighters across northwestern Idlib province echoed the past; many recall when they initially captured Aleppo years before, back when hope lingered amid protests against the regime.
The insurgents’ rapid advancements have led them to capture not just Aleppo but also numerous nearby towns without significant resistance from the Assad regime, which has been struggling amid the distractions of regional conflicts and the toll taken on its military resources by lengthy engagements.
HTS, previously linked to al-Qaeda, has transformed itself over the years, focusing on consolidative strength and enhancing operational capabilities. Analysts have noted this organizational improvement possibly contributed to the swift collapse of government forces, which hardly mounted any resistance during this latest offensive. Reports suggest many soldiers fled, leaving their posts vulnerable, hence the rebels taking control of much of Aleppo and key strategic locations almost unchallenged.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), at least 372 people have lost their lives through the fighting, which includes both combatants and civilians caught amid the chaos. President Assad’s government claimed it had inflicted heavy casualties on the insurgents, stating nearly 1,000 rebels had been killed, though these figures lack independent verification.
Compounding this turmoil, Assad's regime has vowed to eradicate what he terms “terrorists” through force. His words resonate with defiance, yet they reflect the realities of his administration’s waning power and increasing desperation. During discussions with regional counterparts, he expressed determination to continue cracking down on the opposition, emphasizing the need for unity among government forces.
This resurgence of rebel activity could shift the regional balance, leading neighboring countries to recalibrate their strategies concerning the Syrian conflict. Countries such as Turkey have shown varying levels of support for different factions within the conflict, complicatively intertwining national interests with local power dynamics.
Interestingly, as the offensive unfolded, Russian support of Assad, previously pronounced and resolute, faced its challenges. Moscow launched airstrikes supporting Syrian government positions shortly after the rebel advance began. This was dubbed the first significant Russian military support since 2016, showcasing its continued commitment to the Syrian president amid fluctuated circumstances.
Meanwhile, Iranian officials continued to make their presence known, affirming their backing of Assad, signaling their alliance remains intact, even as their forces focus on issues beyond Syria.
Local responses to the rebel gains have been divisive, as not every faction within the opposition is aligned with HTS. Some factions express skepticism about HTS’s intentions and capabilities, foreseeing potential conflicts over the control of liberated territories.
Reflecting on the historical significance of Aleppo, it’s pertinent to note its duality as both cultural venue and war-torn battleground. Once revered as the jewel of Syria, famous for its rich heritage, Aleppo's transformation is yet another reminder of the war's catastrophic impacts on civilians and infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the UN continues to grapple with humanitarian challenges. Recently, reports indicate the UN has paused aid through the main corridor to Gaza amid the upheaval, indicating how interconnected these crises are across the region.
With attacks and counterattacks swiftly entangling multiple actors, it is apparent this resurgence by rebel forces could alter the anticipated trajectories; international observers are left to question if this marks the onset of another intense phase within the already chaotic Syrian civil conflict. Will the Assad regime rally back with renewed force, or does this mark the beginning of systemic changes to the power dynamics within Syria? Only time will tell.
The repercussions of this conflict, as noted by experts, extend beyond Syria, beckoning neighboring nations and world powers to reconsider their strategies and alliances, as the regional equilibrium hangs by the thread of war-torn realities. One thing is certain: the fight for Syria's future is far from over.
