The aftermath of Bashar al-Assad's regime collapse has ushered in not only uncertainty but also hope for many Syrians who have endured over 12 years of civil war. Following his ousting by rebel forces led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dynamics within Syria have shifted dramatically.
On December 8, 2023, Assad was evacuated to Russia amid drone attacks on the Russian Hmeimim airbase, marking the end of his family’s over 50-year grip on power. "At no point during these events did I ever think of stepping down or seeking refuge," Assad stated from Moscow, hoping to distance himself from the chaos as his forces crumbled. This echoes the sentiment felt by many citizens learning to navigate the uncharted waters of post-Assad Syria.
HTS, the group spearheading the offensive which captured Damascus, is historically rooted in Al-Qaeda and continues to be labeled as a terrorist organization by several Western governments. Nevertheless, their abrupt rise to power has sparked hopes for governance among newly freed citizens. "We feel liberated, and the chains have been broken," said Yasmin Shehab, a Damascus university student, embodying the burgeoning optimism creeping across the nation.
Responses from global powers have been swift, with countries revisiting their diplomatic relations with the interim rulers. The United States and Britain confirmed they were establishing contact with HTS. British Foreign Minister David Lammy announced aid for the Syrians, indicating the international community's recognition of the new power dynamics.
Meanwhile, Qatar has made its intentions clear by reopening its embassy and expressing unwavering support for the Syrian people. Acting Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot from France has also set plans for establishing diplomatic ties, even as concerns linger about HTS's approach to governance.
Russian military presence remains uncertain, as officials from the new interim government signify Russia should reconsider its role. Obeida Arnaout, spokesman for the new transitional government, stated on December 16, "Their interests were linked to the criminal Assad regime. They can reconsider and take the initiatives to reach out to the new administration to show they have no animosity toward the Syrian people." This tension poses questions about Russia's future military strategy post-Assad.
The humanitarian catastrophe left by Assad cannot be ignored—mass graves have begun to surface, signifying the notorious abuses under his regime. Mouaz Moustafa, head of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, revealed the shocking discovery of one mass grave outside Damascus containing the remains of at least 100,000 individuals. Moustafa describes it as "a very, very extremely almost unfairly conservative estimate," pointing to the grim legacy of the preceding regime.
Global humanitarian organizations are aiming to support the interim government, but significant efforts are needed to rebuild both infrastructure and trust among the population. UN envoy Geir Pedersen highlighted the necessity of ensuring justice and accountability for the crimes committed during the Assad years. He urged the new government for transparent processes to avoid vengeance against former officials and collaborators.
The internal situation remains complex, as HTS has indicated aspirations to moderate its image and governance practices. Citizens like Ibtissam al-Khouli, attending her first church service since Assad’s departure, expressed cautious optimism. "Thank God, our situation is good. Everyone feels comfortable, there’s no fear," she shared, hinting at newfound freedoms and the potential for coexistence.
Yet, significant barriers remain. Maher Marwan, the interim governor of Damascus, acknowledged the obstacles posed by widespread destruction and the need for social cohesion. "This is reality requires great effort and awareness, along with solidarity to succeed at this phase."
The fate of minorities also looms large, as past atrocities fuel fears of marginalization or aggression. International scrutiny and local leadership must collaborate to resettle fears and build governance structures reflective of all Syrian demographics.
Military developments are notable as well. With historical allies like Iran and Hezbollah withdrawing their support for Assad, Israeli military operations ramped up significantly inside Syrian territory. Reports indicate airstrikes have targeted military installations near Tartus with unprecedented intensity over the past weeks, emphasizing the instability and the likelihood of renewed conflict.
While the Syrian people grapple with the remnants of Assad’s rule, diplomatic engagement is fundamental for long-term stability. The international community’s proactive stance reflects the urgency of addressing humanitarian matters and establishing governance, justice, and accountability moving forward. It is imperative the history of these last 12 years doesn’t repeat itself as citizens strive for hope and healing.
