The recent overthrow of the Bashar Assad regime marks the conclusion of over five decades of the Assad family's control of Syria—a turbulent ending accelerated by internal rebel advances and significant international dynamics.
On December 8, 2024, following a surprise rebel offensive, the Assad regime fell with remarkable speed, reflecting the weakened military support initially provided by Russia and Iran. This unexpected shift has generated both jubilation among opposition forces and deep apprehension about the future of Syria.
Initially, the uprising against Assad began in 2011, mainly focused on reform. Yet it quickly intensified, leading to brutal crackdowns and mass killings as the government responded with severe violence. Fast forward to late 2024, and the rebels, mainly comprising factions like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), capitalized on the regime's vulnerabilities to recapture territory, including key cities like Aleppo, Hama, and Damascus.
The sudden fall of the regime now leaves Syrians caught between hope and fear. There’s widespread celebration for many who suffered under Assad's tyrannical rule, but there’s also great uncertainty about what follows. HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani has claimed the title of caretaker prime minister, raising concerns about the group's ability to govern effectively and inclusively.
Many onlookers question whether Syria may transition toward democracy or slip toward radical Islamist governance, considering HTS's roots as part of Al Qaeda. U.S. officials remain skeptical; HTS is still viewed as a terrorist organization by both American and international standards.
Israel has been on high alert ever since Assad's downfall, launching airstrikes on Syrian military assets as it aims to prevent extremist factions from seizing control and developing military capabilities. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted, “If this regime allows Iran to reestablish itself in Syria or allows for the proliferation of Iranian weapons... we will respond forcefully.”
Much of Israel's concern hinges on Iran, which has long used Syria as a transit hub for military supplies destined for Hezbollah, its regional proxy. A weakened Assad regime signals a possible loss of Iranian ground influence, which Israelis perceive as beneficial to their security, at least for now.
For years, Assad relied heavily on both Russian air support and Iranian militias. This support dwindled significantly as Russia's focus diverted to its war with Ukraine and Iran contended with its internal challenges and external threats from Israeli airstrikes. These shifting allegiances contributed to his regime’s vulnerability.
The end of Assad's reign also carries broader geopolitical ramifications involving key players like Russia, Iran, and Turkey. While the Assad regime provided Iran with significant influence over Syria, the absence of this structure may disrupt their operations, making it harder for Iran to support militant factions like Hezbollah.
Netanyahu’s government has continued to send messages of military readiness to intervene if another hostile regime surfaces. The Israeli defense apparatus remains positioned along the borders, employing airstrikes strategically to mitigate threats from inside Syria.
Even as rebel forces celebrate their newfound strength, the picture remains complex. Celebrations break out as cities liberate from the regime, but questions surrounding governance loom large. Can HTS effectively govern Syria? What about the splintered nature of various armed factions vying for power? These pressing questions raise fears of instability and potential conflict among fragmented groups.
Beyond the internal strife, many Syrians worry about the possibility of forced repatriation from host countries as news of Assad's fall spreads. Syrian refugees, already hesitant due to past traumas, face the possibility of dangerous conditions should they return without assurance of safety and stability.
Throughout history, Syria has endured various political upheavals and interventions. The current transitional period is yet another chapter filled with uncertainty. While some view the collapse of the Assad regime as the beginning of new opportunities for the Syrian people, the path forward remains riddled with obstacles, as the complex web of alliances, ideological divides, and legacy of violence continue to shape the region.
Newly liberated regions are beginning to organize themselves again, with the potential for local councils and civil administration. The people of Syria long for normalcy and peace, striving for self-governance and rebuilding amid echoes of past horrors. Only time will tell how they navigate the immediate future, historically fraught with tribulations, now tinged with the prospect of renewed hope and potential democratic change.
Despite marked changes, Syria’s history signals caution. The hope for democracy often faces challenges from external and internal players with their own agendas. Will the calls for freedom lead to lasting reforms, or will they be usurped by new tyrants? The answers may shape the Middle East itself and chart the course of Syrian history for generations.
