The anticipation is palpable as the 2025 US Open, the last Grand Slam of the tennis calendar, prepares to serve up a feast of drama, star power, and high-stakes matches in New York City. Aryna Sabalenka enters as the defending champion, but all eyes are on world number one Iga Swiatek, whose recent dominance on both grass and hard courts has made her the tournament favorite. With a field stacked with proven champions, resurgent veterans, and hungry challengers, this year’s women’s singles draw promises fireworks from the opening round.
Sabalenka, who lifted the trophy in New York last year after a clinical 7-5, 7-5 victory over Jessica Pegula, faces the unique challenge of defending her title while no longer holding the top ranking. Swiatek, who reclaimed the world number one spot after winning Wimbledon in July and the Cincinnati title in mid-August, has leapfrogged Sabalenka in both the rankings and the betting markets. The Pole’s odds have shortened to 5/2, while Sabalenka stands at 3/1, reflecting the shift in momentum at the top of the women’s game.
“There has been plenty of support for Iga Swiatek in recent days after she added the Cincinnati title to the Wimbledon trophy she lifted for the first time in July,” noted one preview, highlighting the confidence surrounding Swiatek’s current form. However, some observers caution against overstating her resurgence, reminding fans that prior to her Wimbledon triumph, Swiatek had only one hard-court Grand Slam title to her name. This subtle context could play into Sabalenka’s hands, allowing the Belarusian to mount a title defense with less pressure and more focus.
Coco Gauff, meanwhile, aims to capture her second US Open crown in three years. The American prodigy, who thrilled fans with her run to the French Open title earlier this summer, has hit a rough patch on the hard courts. Gauff’s struggles have been widely discussed, especially after a shocking first-round exit at Wimbledon to Dayana Yastremska and subsequent defeats to Victoria Mboko in Canada and Jasmine Paolini in Cincinnati. Hall of Fame coach Rick Macci weighed in on Gauff’s plight, stating, “Coco will be OK as she fights and knows how to play. But to ever breathe rare air she has to address the alarming red flare. She is at a career crossroad, with the second serve and forehand, but needs a science-based plan. This will not magically go away and bubbles up more under extreme pressure that particular day.”
Gauff’s serve has been a particular point of concern. Over her last five matches, she’s averaged 9.2 double faults per contest, and her second-serve win percentage has dipped to 48.5%, trailing behind rivals like Sabalenka, Pegula, Rybakina, and Swiatek, all of whom are above 50%. The pressure is on for Gauff to shore up her game before the US Open curtain rises on Sunday, August 24.
Among the dark horses and headline makers, Naomi Osaka stands out. The Japanese star, a two-time champion in New York (2018, 2020), is eyeing a third US Open title after a resurgent run to the final in Montreal, where she fell only to Canada’s Victoria Mboko. Osaka, currently priced at 16/1, appears to be approaching her best form at just the right time. “That long run would have told the former world number one that she might finally be ready to go close in the Grand Slams again,” observed analysts, suggesting that Osaka’s confidence could pose a threat to the favorites.
Jessica Pegula, last year’s US Open runner-up, returns with a 37-16 record in 2025 (22-9 on hard courts) and three titles to her name this season: Austin, Charleston, and Bad Homburg. Pegula’s consistency and recent form make her a formidable first-round opponent for Egypt’s Mayar Sherif, who is looking to improve on her first-round exit last year. Sherif, who has a 0-3 record against her projected draw, faces an uphill battle but could spring a surprise if she finds her rhythm early.
The draw is brimming with intriguing first-round clashes. Katie Boulter faces Ukraine’s Marta Kostyuk in a tough opener, while Sonay Kartal is up against Brazil’s Beatriz Haddad Maia. Elsewhere, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova takes on Dayana Yastremska, Ajla Tomljanovic faces 2023 champion Coco Gauff, and Barbora Krejcikova meets Montreal champion Victoria Mboko. Tennis legend Venus Williams, a two-time US Open champion, will try to turn back the clock against Karolina Muchova. A win for Williams would undoubtedly send the Arthur Ashe crowd into raptures.
Looking deeper into the field, several contenders and longshots are worth monitoring. Mirra Andreeva and Elena Rybakina are both listed at 11/1, reflecting their strong seasons and potential to disrupt the established order. Belinda Bencic, the 2019 US Open semi-finalist and 2021 Olympic gold medalist, enters with a 27-13 record in 2025 and is seen as a value pick at 66/1. Bencic’s reliable game on hard courts and recent Wimbledon semifinal run suggest she could trouble the favorites if she finds her groove.
Mayar Sherif’s projected path through the draw is daunting. After Pegula, she could face Yuliia Starodubtseva (19-26 in 2025), Dayana Yastremska (31-17), Belinda Bencic, and potentially Mirra Andreeva or Aryna Sabalenka in later rounds. Sherif’s head-to-head records offer little comfort—she is winless against most of these projected opponents, but Grand Slam tennis is nothing if not unpredictable.
Sabalenka’s 2025 campaign has been impressive, boasting a 50-10 record (26-5 on hard courts) and titles in Brisbane, Miami, and Madrid. Her victory over Pegula in last year’s US Open final remains fresh in memory, and she’s won 8 of her last 10 matches entering New York. Swiatek, meanwhile, has a 49-12 record this year (28-7 on hard) and is riding a five-match winning streak, with titles at Wimbledon and Cincinnati underscoring her credentials.
As the women’s singles draw takes shape, the storylines are as compelling as ever. Can Sabalenka defend her crown amid the shadow of Swiatek’s resurgence? Will Gauff overcome her serving woes to thrill the home crowd? Is this the moment for Osaka’s return to Grand Slam glory? And which dark horse will emerge to shake up the established hierarchy?
With so many questions and so much talent on display, the 2025 US Open promises to deliver another unforgettable chapter in tennis history. The action is set, the stage is New York, and the world will be watching as the drama unfolds.
