The Italian Open continues this week as Iga Swiatek faces Danielle Collins while Jasmine Paolini goes up against Ons Jabeur in the competition’s round of 32 stage. Damien Kayat previews.
Iga Swiatek 2/13 | Danielle Collins 42/100
Reigning French Open champ Iga Swiatek needed an immediate response after being mauled by Coco Gauff in the Madrid semifinals. And she delivered, blitzing Italian Elisabetta Cocciaretto 6-1, 6-0 to open her Rome account in style (she needed just 52 minutes to get the job done). Swiatek was imperious on the stodgy Rome clay, winning 84% of her first-serve points and not facing a single break-point in the entire match. It’s almost absurd to think that the Pole – who some feared would run away with the sport at one point – hasn’t reached a final since her title-winning run in Paris last season. She hasn’t been dreadful this season, reaching at least the quarterfinal stage in every event she has played. She has just lacked that famed killer instinct, failing to win any of her four semifinal matches. I personally think there are multiple reasons for her ‘regression’. Firstly, it takes a herculean effort to attain the type of dominance that she once possessed (and it’s even harder to maintain). Secondly, many of her rivals – Sabalenka, Gauff and Pegula- have simply improved in recent times. Swiatek loves this Rome quicksand, winning this title in three of the last four seasons. This could be her chance to remind the world that she is still the queen of clay.
Next up for Swiatek is American firebrand Danielle Collins. The combustible American publicly criticised Iga Swiatek after last year’s Paris Olympics, castigating the Pole for not taking her injury seriously. The former Grand Slam runner-up hasn’t been able to replicate her 2024 form this season. Collins was in terrific form at this time last year, having won back-to-back titles in Miami and Charleston. She also performed wonders in this tournament, reaching a maiden WTA 1000 clay-court semifinal. In fact, Collins’ 2024 success forced her to walk back retirement plans. The hard-hitting American has struggled this season, reaching just one quarterfinal (on the Charleston clay). Having said all that, Collins is the type of big-game player who can find something in these marquee matches. She also looked impressive in her Rome opener, breezing past Elena-Gabriela Ruse in straight sets. Can she exploit Swiatek’s recent crisis in confidence to give herself a boost ahead of the French Open?
The Verdict: Swiatek to win in straight sets 32/10. Swiatek has dominated their head-to-head rivalry 7-1, winning their last five successive matches (including three last year). People are going to get enticed by Collins here (especially looking at Swiatek’s ‘middling’ form). But I just can’t see the American competing with Swiatek on this red clay. Maybe it’s worth it to opt for under 18.5 games at 1.19 (this could be a procession).
Jasmine Paolini 49/100 | Ons Jabeur 32/20
This has the potential to be an enthralling clash between two adept clay-court operators. Jasmine Paolini got her Rome adventure off to a positive start, withstanding a big-serving barrage from Lulu Sun to advance 6-4, 6-3. This marks the first time in her career that she has advanced to the 3rd round in Rome (though she did win the doubles event last season playing alongside Sara Errani). A runner-up at last year’s French Open, Paolini is a dynamic clay-court player with superb athleticism and exceptional variety. She started this season slowly but came into her own in recent months, picking up back-to-back semifinal finishes in Miami and Stuttgart. She suffered a bit of a setback in Madrid, pulverised by hard-hitting Maria Sakkari 6-2, 6-1. But Paolini should feel quite confident on these slow surfaces. She is one of the best movers on tour, and her forehand can penetrate the court. Her sliced backhand is also a brilliant weapon in slow, uneven conditions.
Ons Jabeur’s injury issues have mounted, leading to some abject form (she is 1-4 in her four events leading into this tournament). She will probably be secretly pleased that Petra Kvitova – her opening round opponent – had to withdraw due to injury. The trailblazing Tunisian – a three-time Grand Slam runner-up – has struggled to recapture the form that catapulted her to No.2 in the world in 2022. Still, there is no denying her prodigious talent. At her peak, Jabeur is one of the finest clay-court players on the women’s tour, using her stellar variety to outwit opponents. She has a beautifully disguised drop-shot and can slice the ball off both wings. She also has the capacity to up the tempo when required. However, it remains to be seen if her body can withstand the grind of this sluggish red clay. The five-time clay-court champion has thrived in these conditions in the past, finishing runner-up here back in 2022.
The Verdict: Paolini to win in straight sets at 21/20. This has been an intense rivalry, with both players sitting on two wins apiece. Paolini won their recent meeting in Miami, with Jabeur having to withdraw due to a calf issue. They have split their clay-court meetings 1-1. So, there is little to split these two from a historical perspective. This is going to be a tough assignment for Jabeur. Paolini is an athletic demon who won’t be overawed by Jabeur’s variety. She will chase down drop shots and return slices with interest.
The match between Iga Swiatek and Danielle Collins is much-anticipated due to past drama between the two. When Collins was forced to retire during their last meeting at the 2024 Paris Olympics, she told Swiatek, “I don’t need the fakeness.” The intensity between these two competitors adds an extra layer of excitement to their upcoming clash.
As the tournament progresses, fans are eager to see if Swiatek can maintain her dominance on clay or if Collins can finally turn the tide in their rivalry. With Swiatek's impressive track record and Collins' undeniable talent, this match promises to be a thrilling encounter.
